NOTES: Cold conditions are a reality, even without unexpected snow and storms. Nighttime temps are cold and can PLUNGE.
2019
2018
Status
Early October storm (calendar) brought more optimism than precipitation, followed by generally moderate temps (not too hot, not too cool) which moderately suppressed fire potential, despite the lack of further rain, until mid-month Red Flag warnings have come and gone without yet another fire disaster.
The threat is now rising (on the 16th) that the Highs over Colorado & Mid-west (maps) could consolidate over the Four Corners region, which is the mechanism that drives the, "Diablo," & "Santa Ana," winds that traditionally bring fierce Fall fires to California, the Sierra, and the West, generally.
Conditions are currently ideal for Fall Backpacking in the High Sierra, if certain precautions are taken. First, we've got to understand that the temps can plunge. Proper insulation for a worse-case weather scenario is vital. Second, we understand that a freak storm can blow in, bringing Winter conditions to the High Sierra early, if the storm comes out of the cooling Northwest. A freak storm out of the tropical seas to our Southwest can scour the Crest with lightening and slushy downpours, while pounding the flanks with tropical downpours.
Current Surface Lows & 7-Day Freezing Temps
Having the proper gear to deal with these eventualities (hike long enough, and the freak storms & weather will find you) is vital.
My point is even when Nature is showing us the most benign conditions of a gentle Fall season at the start of our hike, these mosquito-free days of crisp conditions and striking contrasts can rapidly transform into dangerous conditions for the unprepared when the weather gets fired-up.
Despite the fact that NOAA is talking-up the odds of an El Nino, of a buildup of hot water in the Central-West Pacific sliding East into an El Nino configuration, I don't see it happening... well, I put the odds of an El Nino building this Winter at less than half of where NOAA is setting them.
Heck, I still see the cold water churn of the La Nina operating...
El Nino-La Nina Tools
Let's see what the Climate Prediction Center has to say about the upcoming Winter.
Comments? What do you think is going on?
2017
2016
NOTE on TYPICAL OCTOBER ISSUES
Oct
A La Nina streak of Central-East Pacific very cold water was building, now is pulsing through mid-October.
This is generally indicative of a very cold dry Winter in the Sierra and West Coast.
ENSO GRAPHIC
I describe the factors controlling the outcome of the great planetary forces at play: An El Nino beyond all historical conceptions transitioning into La Nina conditions. A Great North Pacific High that is acting as persistent this season as the last four, and finally, an Arctic Circle that is not the spinning disc of fierce cold that traditionally draws the jet stream up to it.
(Oct 24 Update: Rising low "tendencies" over the NE Pacific have coalesced into a big, but not very deep, low pressure zone that established itself over the NE Pacific off Seattle a few days ago. It has been large and fairly stationary for a few days now.)
RUN THE SURFACE MAP
Mid-Pacific Weather Factors are all out of kilter. How they come to a balance between their competing and cooperating forces will determining exactly how the power and influences of this burbbeling La Nina will influence our Winter weather.
A La Nina typically brings cold, dry Winters. Not so far. We've seen a more "normal" an October than I've seen for decades.
RUN THE SURFACE MAP
2014 Calendar 2015 Calendar 2016 Calendar 2017 Calendar
2018 Calendar 2019 Calendar
2016
SPECIFIC OBSERVATIONS
Oct 16
Wow. We are experiencing the outlines of a classic, "traditional" wet Fall. Is this just a "wet" aberration in the progress of increasingly drier, warmer Winter weather? Or are these storms heralding a return to a snow covered Sierra Winter, for at least this year? The answer to these questions hinges on a number of "big" questions.
Will the North Pacific High reform and deflect the wet jet stream around us again this Winter? Will the Arctic cool down and behave normally? Will the La Nina strengthen, weaken, or disappear? All of these major weather "factors" have been behaving strangely. I expect their strange and surprising behaviors to continue, which will continue to bring unusual configurations of weather as they interact with each other in brand-new ways to produce brand-new weather patterns with new characters and behaviors.
Stay tuned. The real greatest show on the planet is playing itself out on the L, L, & G stages of life right in front of us!
(That's "Liquids, Land Masses, & Gasses." )
Oct 24 Update
Rising and persisting low-pressure "tendencies" over the NE Pacific have coalesced into a big, but not very deep, low pressure zone that established itself in a stationary over the NE Pacific off Seattle a few days ago. It has been large and fairly stationary for a few days now.
This concentration of persisting low pressure has sucked these warm storm fronts up from the Southwest, out from the waters and skies around Hawaii, since October 14.
Oct 29 2016
High Temps bring cold rains on the verge of being snow flurries, while snow flurries melt upon hiker contact: THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS.
Excellent Gear Required.
We must be able to stay warm in freezing rains.
RUN THE SURFACE MAP |
HIGH SIERRA
Winter Backpacker
WEATHER RESOURCES
ALL SNOW
INFORMATION
Snowfall
on the
Ground
Rain-Snow
Probabilities
Rain-Snow
Forecasts |
The Tweener
October is the last month we can almost rely on great backpacking weather.
We can bank on serious early-season storms every few years. Don’t get stuck out without the gear necessary to survive, keep traveling, and enjoy it.
Is this one of those years?
2018
End of September through Late October:
Not too Cool-Not too Hot
IDEAL BACKPACKING WEATHER
2016
Wow. Two Oct storms by the 14th gives this Winter a more "typical," feel of a "traditional" wet Fall than we've been getting used-to over the past twenty years.
This is potentially a good omen for a fantastic Winter backpacking season in the Sierra.
This means those backpackers who've gotten accustomed to fine, clear weather in Fall better re-assess your Fall hiking plans for more traditional cold & wet conditions.
Winter Backpackers?
Get Ready to Rumble!
HAZARD ALERT
Oct 29 2016
High Temps bring cold rains on the verge of being snow flurries, while snow flurries melt upon hiker contact:
THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS.
Excellent Gear Required.
We must be able to stay warm in freezing rains.
2014 Calendar 2015 Calendar
2016 Calendar 2017 Calendar
2018 Calendar
2019 Calendar |
