Killer Sunset at The Sisters near Carson Pass

Emigrant Wilderness under Tropical Thunderstorm, September.

Round Top Lake

Whitebarks and Grizzly Peak in Emigrant Wilderness under Tropical Clouds during September 2013

Lost Keys Lake

Lake Tahoe to Mount Whitney
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2018

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January
2018

North Desolation Wilderness

View North across Dicks and Fontanillis Lakes. Phipps Peak and Pass are the prominent peak in the middle-Right background. Note Middle Velma Lake nestled in below Phipps Peak. Our route from Meeks Bay on the West Shore of Lake Tahoe crossed Phipps Peak to join the Pacific Crest Trail in the Desolation Wilderness just a bit North of Middle Velma Lake.

Trail Guide Map Miles and Elevations

End of December 2017

January 2018

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2018	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
Happy New Year of note: FULL WINTER CONDITIONS 2018 Be it a Winter Season of drought or deluge, The Fall Gear has been stowed or complimented by the Heavy Gear of Winter. What's Going On? See December of 2017 High Sierra Reports FALL 2017 to WINTER 2018 On September 15th we shifted from Summer to Fall Gear. On November 3rd Winter Gear was Required. After November 26 FULL Winter gear, skills, and fitness levels required. All High Sierra Weather Info Latest Daily Snow Depth Summary Daily Sierra Snowpack % of Normal pdf Daily Snow-Water & Percent of Average All Precipitation-Snow Data All Snow Surveys SWC & Snow Depth Yosemite-Hoover-Desolation & John Muir Trail Hikers: Time to Order Next Year's Permits! Reserved permits for June 2018 now available from Yosemite, Hoover, and Desolation Wilderness Areas. In other words, Yosemite, Desolation, and Hoover Wilderness Areas all offer advanced reservations about six months ahead of your desired hiking dates. This means now is the time to get your JMT permit application, along with other popular hikes, into the Man. All Permits Yosemite Permits Desolation Wilderness	1 US COLD PLUNGE Central, Central-South, & Northeast US: Temps at, and Plunging to Record Levels, Continuing through New Year. What's Happening Here? Polar Vortex Weakening West Coast Cloudy & Dry Lows marching North up the West flank of the Persistant High off the West Coast of N America & West US (as they go around us) have been shedding high clouds Eastward, and over the Sierra, yet without any precip, but warming things up a bit, while bringing no substantial snow in them. That should change on Wednesday. Top 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check After-report of eleven* Snow-storms across Sierra this Fall. The last weak front came across on the 20th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Dec 28, 2017 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 16" -1 8388 feet (8.8" H2O) +.1 47 & 31 -/+ Ebbetts Pass 19" -1 8660 feet (12.30" H2O) =.0 47 & 36 =/= Leavitt Lake 39" +2 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (12.6" H20) =.0 46 & 33 +/- Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (BAD) (14.76" H20) (BAD?) +.12 49 & 23 +/- Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 6.07" Snow -.07 46 & 22 -/+ Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 14.49" Snow +.22 (--.--" H20) (BAD) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (9.3" H2O) SuspectSuspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 32.06" Snow -.71 (9.76" H2O) +.04 48 & 28 -/- South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (15.8 H2O) = 46 & 28 -/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 1.1" Snow +.1 41 & 24 -/+ Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 11.84" Snow = 39 & 25 -/+ (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than eleven fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only eleven fronts of any substance. Most have been dissapated as they pass through this vast High. All Snow and Rain Precipitation Forecasts, & Snow Depth and/or Inches of Water 2017 Overcast and Warmer, with still Cold-sprinkles 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps Top	2 Backpackers Full Winter Gear, Skills, and Fitness precautions REQUIRED Weather Observations 2018 January 2 HIGH SIERRA REPORT What we're seeing today is one step in a transition between the last and the next in the series of vast, massive cells of persistant High Pressure air that have been covering the West Coast of California (if not the whole West Coast of North America) over the whole month of December. We're watching the Next High moving East across the width of the Central & Southern North Pacific Ocean, which is "compressing," and tending to push the High currently over the West Coast, to the East. The gap between this "succession of Highs" is giving a couple of weak tropical lows, which are dragging weak tropical fronts behind them, which are trying to squeeze in between the succession of Massive Highs, a chance to "squeeze in" between the transition of Massive Highs. Two things are happening to these Lows, and have been happening to their associated fronts, through the whole month of December: 1st, these Lows and their associated tropical fronts are both seriously degraded by their transits through the persistant High Pressure zone, when they are able to break through. This considerably weakens both the Lows and their associated fronts, which have been weak to begin with. Second, Lows traveling into and through the Highs are deflected North as they are weakened, tending to push potential precipitation North around the Sierra Nevada. FULL REPORT Let's Check the relevant resources North Pac Animated Weather Map Snow Model Rain Model Next Summer's Permits Permits for JUNE 18 2018 available from Yosemite TODAY. Yosemite Permits Desolation Wilderness Hoover Wilderness 2017 REPORT Vast High in NE Pacific	3 JANUARY Snow Course Measurements Ca Statewide Ave: 11% Sierra Snowpack 24% (see below) West Coast Three days of Mildly Stormy weather begins today-this afternoon. Nonetheless, a wall of High Pressure sits over the whole Western Edge of North America from Vancover to the LA Basin. Neither the Low currently off the West Coast of California, nor its associated Front, will make landfall: They are both moving North up the coast, off the Western edge of the wall of High Pressure covering Western North America. California is being "grazed" by this Low and Front as the High deflects them North. ALL HIGH SIERRA REPORTING STATIONS All Snow and Rain Precipitation Forecasts, & Snow Depth and/or Inches of Water RADAR SAT VIEW 2018 Pre-Storm Current Snowpack: Percent of Average for January 3. N Sierra: 21% Cen. Sierra:29% S Sierra: 20% Ca State: 24% Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF US COLD PLUNGE Central, Central-South, & Northeast US: Temps continuing at Record Low Levels: Storms in Southeast & Northeast US pose unique risks... What's Happening Here? Polar Vortex Weakening Top 2017 Stormy and Cool, but still Cold-regular precip, light intensity strengthening to moderate into late PM 2017 Today's Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps	4 Clearing between Weak Fronts Yesterday's storm a freeking dud. The weather observations of Jan 2, below, explain why. Weather Observations Thoughts for the New Year Next Summer's Permits Permits for JUNE 18 2018 available from Yosemite TODAY. Yosemite Permits Desolation Wilderness Hoover Wilderness CCC Backcountry Trail Crew Applications due EARLY FEB 2018 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check After-report of twelve* Snow-storms across Sierra this Fall. The last weak front came across on the 3rd. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 1 , 2018 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 17" +1 8388 feet (9.0" H2O) +.2 49 & 33 +/+ Ebbetts Pass 20 " +1 8660 feet (12.60" H2O) +.3 53 & 37 +/+ Leavitt Lake 40 " +1 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (12.8" H20) +.2 48 & 34 +/+ Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (BAD) (14.76" H20) +.12 (BAD?) 51 & 32 +/+ Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 4.71" Snow -1.36 50 & 29 +/+ Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 15.38" Snow +.89 (--.--" H20) (BAD) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (9.29" H2O) SuspectSuspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 33.19" Snow +1.13 (9.76" H2O) =.00 53 & 28 +/= South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (15.8 H2O) = 55 & 34 +/+ Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 0.70" Snow -.4 46 & 32 +/+ Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 11.95" Snow +.11 41 & 27 +/+ (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than twelve fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only twelve fronts of any substance. Most have been dissapated or weakened as they pass through this vast High, but this was the first to make landfall as the High finally broke and moved Southeast, allowing the Front to drag across the Western portions of the state. 2017 Stormy and Cool, but still Cold-regular precip, light to moderate intensity	5 Weak Front Stronger than Last Front All High Sierra Reporting Stations All Snow and Rain Precipitation Forecasts, & Snow Depth and/or Inches of Water Top Top LAST MONTH NEXT WEEK 2017 Clear and Cold Huge tropical flow lining up from the Southwest, heavy precip expected from tomorrow night through next Friday... 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps 7 Day Precip Forecast 2017 NOTE La Nina still puttering along...	6 Clearing between Weak Fronts The Sierra on January 6 by... MODIS SIERRA SATELLITE Radar Visible Satellites Water Vapor Satellites Sierra Forecasts Western US Forecasts All Sierra Snow Info Sierra Sensor Networks High Sierra Highways 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check After-report of thirteen* Snow-storms across Sierra this Fall. The last weak front came across on the 4th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 4 , 2018 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 18" +1 8388 feet (9.9" H2O) +.9 42 & 34 -/+ Ebbetts Pass 32" +12 8660 feet (14.10" H2O) +1.3 40 & 33 -/- Leavitt Lake 52" +12 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (14.2" H20) +1.3 39 & 31 -/- Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (15.48" H20) +.72 (BAD?) 51 & 32 +/+ Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 11.08" Snow +4.3 46 & 25 -/- Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 22.23" Snow +6.85 (--.--" H20) (BAD) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (10.07" H2O) SuspectSuspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 41.88" Snow +8.69 (10.72" H2O) =.00 45 & 29 -/+ South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (15.8 H2O) = 47 & 31 -/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 1.90" Snow +1.24 43 & 29 -/- Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 15.58" Snow +1.63 41 & 26 =/- (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than thirteen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only thirteen fronts of any substance. Most have been dissapated or weakened as they pass through this vast High, while this time the High has moved further South and East. 2017 Storm Time Tropical Pounding RAIN ACROSS SIERRA CREST Huge tropical flow transporting vast amount of warm moisture from the Southwest, heavy precip. Raining Across the Sierra Crest Top
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
7 Clouding-Up Persistant High over West Coast being displaced, & sitting further South, as are all the Highs approaching from the West across the Southern North Pacific... 2017 Storm Time Tropical Pounding Rain on the Sierra Crest. Ground Saturating, All Rivers Rising.	8 Moderate Low & Front Stronger than Last Front of the 5th Widespread weak to moderate precip. A Cold Front from the North is sitting North of a low-lattitude High off the SoCal Coast. Significant Tropical Moisture could be drawn NE between them, before both the Cold Front moves East over the US, and another High moves East across the Pacific. Storm & Flood WARNINGS Last Snow Reading The 6th Top 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps North Pacific Surface Map The day you click it is the day you see... North Pacific 14 Day Surface Map Tahoe to Whitney Weather	9 Moderate Low & Front Persistant High Broken 12:00 UTC LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL LA-LA LAND & SOCAL Widespread weak to moderate precip. Current NORTHEAST PACIFIC Visible Satellite This is the first Low Pressure Storm Center I've seen hit LA & SoCal in a very long time. Fronts are dragged across SoCal more often, but not often lately. This Low is the first actual storm-center I've seen hit LA for a very-very long time... It's making a mess of the fire zones... 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check "Halfway" -report of fourteenth* Snow-storm this Fall & Winter, & still falling on the Sierra. The previous weak front came across on the 5th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 6 , 2018 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 20" +2 8388 feet (11.0" H2O) +1.1 38 & 32 -/- Ebbetts Pass 32" +0 8660 feet (15.10" H2O) +1.0 38 & 31 -/- Leavitt Lake 56" +4 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (15.4" H20) +1.2 38 & 32 -/+ Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (16.08" H20) +.60 (BAD?) 41 & 32 -/= Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 10.54" Snow -.54 37 & 32 -/+ Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 26.88" Snow +4.65 (19.34" H20) (BAD) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (11.05" H2O) +.98 SuspectSuspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 47.2" Snow +5.32 (10.72" H2O) =2.08 34 & 29 -/= South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (15.8 H2O) = 34 & 28 -/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 7.4" Snow +5.5 32 & 25 -/- Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 25.47" Snow +9.89 31 & 25 -/- (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than fourteen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only thirteen fronts of any substance. Most have been dissapated or weakened as they pass through the persistant High, which has now dissapated. 2017 Tropical Pounding Cooling Significantly	10 Gradully Clearing & Cooling Diminishing to End of Precip Beware COLD PLUNGE The Sierra on January 9 by... MODIS SIERRA SATELLITE Visible Satellites Water Vapor Satellites 2018 Post-Storm Current Snowpack: Percent of Average for January 10. N Sierra: 18% Cen. Sierra: 30% S Sierra: 25% Ca State: 26% Last Reading: Jan 3 Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check "Ending" -report of fourteenth* Snow-storm this Fall & Winter, & still falling on the Sierra. The previous weak front came across on the 5th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 9, 2018 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 22" +2 8388 feet (11.2" H2O) +.2 38 & 33 =/+ Ebbetts Pass 33" +1 8660 feet (15.20" H2O) +.1 40 & 31 +/= Leavitt Lake 60 " +4 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (15.5" H20) +.1 39 & 29 +/- Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (16.32" H20) +.24 (BAD?) 41 & 25 =/- Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 10.87" Snow +.33 36 & 25 -/- Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 26.89" Snow +.01 (19.53" H20) (BAD?) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (10.66" H2O) -.39 Suspect Suspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet (BAD)" Snow +-.-- (12.16" H2O) +1.44 34 & 22 =/- South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (16.0 H2O) +0.2 34 & 23 =/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 7.5" Snow +0.1 31 & 18 -/- Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 26.46" Snow -1.01 28 & 17 -/- (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than fourteen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only thirteen fronts of any substance.	11 Cloudy & Clearing Little or No Precip Radar Visible Satellites Water Vapor Satellites Sierra Forecasts Western US Forecasts All Sierra Snow Info Sierra Sensor Networks High Sierra Highways 2017 Tropical Pounding Storm Time Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps Serious snow accumulation... 2017 NOTE La Nina still puttering along...	12 Foggy to Clear No Precip High Building-In. Will it Persist? Map It Precip Forecast Monday LAST WEEK NEXT WEEK 2017 Storm Breaking Up Top	13 Mixed to Clear SNOW CAMPERS Track snow, storms, and temps to determine character of Winter, and find a big hole between the storms. Then we determine snow depth, its condition, and the daily temp swing, and gear-up appropriately. Winter Weather Reports We are looking for big gaps, mountains of High Pressure between storms. Top Top
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
14 Mixed Top 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps	15 MLK Day Cloudy Light Precip Anticipated this evening 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check "Ending" -report of fourteenth* Snow-storm this Fall & Winter, & still falling on the Sierra. The last front came across on the 9th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 10, 2018 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 21" -1 8388 feet (11.2" H2O) =.0 50 & 33 +/= Ebbetts Pass 31" -2 8660 feet (15.60" H2O) +.4 51 & 36 +/+ Leavitt Lake 56 " -4 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (15.5" H20) =.0 50 & 35 +/+ Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (BAD?) (16.32" H20) +.24 (BAD?) 48 & 23 +/- Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 10.82" Snow -.05 50 & 22 +/- Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 24.00" Snow -2.89 (19.53" H20) (BAD?) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (10.56" H2O) -.1 Suspect Suspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 46.31" Snow -.89 (12.60" H2O) +.44 50 & 31 +/+ South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (16.0 H2O) =0.0 55 & 29 +/+ Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 3.1" Snow -4.4 46 & 24 +/+ Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 23.55" Snow -2.91 45 & 28 +/+ (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than fourteen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only fourteen fronts of any substance.	16 Cloudy-Weak Fronts NO SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP High building back in, but not into the NE Pacific, not off the shore of North California & Oregon, but hugging along the coast and inland over the NW corner of the US. This/these Highs extend SW into the Pacific off the coast of Central and Southern California. This configuration has weakened all the fronts we've experienced since the 2nd day of this month, when I first noted this front-weakening effect. WINTER of 2018	17 Cloudy-Weak Fronts NO SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP No substantial precip since the moderate storms at the end of December & first days of January. REALTIME High Sierra Crestline Reporting Stations (Compare with the 15th) Carson Pass 8388 feet Ebbetts Pass 8660 feet Leavitt Lake 9602 feet Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank Deadman Creek 9250 feet Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet Gem Pass 10750 feet Mammoth Pass 9500 feet South Lake Cabin 9580 feet Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet Bishop Pass 11972 feet Charlotte Lake 10398 feet Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet All High Sierra Reporting Stations Top 2017 Moderate Precip Top	18 Weak Front Arriving in PM Light-Moderate PRECIP Winter Storm Warning & Advisory Low & Front crossing Nor Cal at 2:56 UTC 6:56 PST Top LAST WEEK NEXT WEEK 2017 Howling	19 Last Band of Weak Front Clearing Sierra 19:15 UTC 11:15 PST Big Clear, Cold, High sliding in behind Beware COLD PLUNGE Colder Fronts Coming ! 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check "Ending" -report of fifteenth* Snow-storm this Fall & Winter. The last front came across on the 16th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 15, 2018 NEW WATER YEAR Tahoe Basin Watershed N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. American-Yuba Watersheds Carson-Walker Watersheds Carson Pass 24" +3 8388 feet (11.5" H2O) +.3 50 & 33 +/= Ebbetts Pass 37"+6 8660 feet (16.20" H2O) +.6 41 & 29 -/= Leavitt Lake 61 " +5 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (16.4" H20) +.9 41 & 29 -/- Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (BAD?) (17.4" H20) +1.08 (BAD?) 40 & 16 -/- Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 10.1" Snow -.71 45 & 22 -/= Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 22.85" Snow -1.15 (19.53" H20) (BAD?) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (10.82" H2O) +.24 Suspect Suspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 43.82" Snow -2.18 (12.64" H2O) +.04 38 & 22 -/- South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (16.0 H2O) = 0.0 43 & 28 -/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 2.3" Snow -.8 39 & 25 -/- Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 23.53" Snow -0.02 29 & 24 -/- (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than fifteen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only fifteen fronts of any substance. 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps Top	20 Clear Sierra Crest Cloudy All Snow Data The Sierra on January 20 by... MODIS SIERRA SATELLITE Current Conditions Lows bobbing around Gulf Alaska, occasionally shooting one, a Low Pressure Zone, off to the East. Check the North Pacific Weather Maps High Pressure over East Pacific off West Coast of Oregon & California for December has broken-down into High over NW Corner of US "leaking" SW off the Coast of California from roughly at the lattitude of SF & extending Southwest off the coast. Tropical Moisture is currently being sucked Northeast between the Low to the North in Gulf Alaska and the High off the Coast of Central and Southern California. Exactly where this moisture gets deposited on the North American Continent depends on the specific orientation of the Lows & Highs. Some of it will likely cross the Sierra over the next few days. All mositure is deflected around California if the High moves North. Moisture is directed at the Sierra when the Lows in Gulf Alaska and the High off the West Coast both shift South. Currently, and for the next five days it looks like the movements of the Highs and Lows looks likely to direct the majority of the thick tropical moisture and powerful frontal activity to our North, with that getting through the High Pressure along the Coast of California being weakened by the now "semi-persistent" High Pressure over California and the Sierra Nevada. We're going to get some precip in the Sierra over the next few days, but it looks like it'll be, "scraps," while the majority of Lows and their associated Frontal Activity passes North. We'll See... 2018 Snowpack: Percent of Average for January 20. N Sierra: 17% Cen. Sierra: 27% S Sierra: 21% Ca State: 22% Last: Jan 3 Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps 2017 Snowpack: Percent of Average for January 20. N Sierra: 143% Cen. Sierra:168% S Sierra: 197% Ca State: 168% Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF Next 2017 Reading Feb. 3, 2017 Top
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
21 Weak Front Approaches PM Precip	22 Clearing Virtually No Snow from last Front 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check "Ending" -report of sixteenth* Snow-storm this Fall & Winter. The last front came across on the 19th. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings. Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 19, 2018 NEW WATER YEAR N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. Tahoe Basin Watershed American-Yuba Watersheds Carson Pass 24" =0 8388 feet (11.8" H2O) +.3 31 & 10 -/- Carson-Walker Watersheds Ebbetts Pass 36"-1 8660 feet (16.70" H2O) +.5 33 & 12 -/- Leavitt Lake 61 " =0 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (16.7" H20) +.3 28 & 10 -/- Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (BAD?) (17.28" H20) -0.12 (BAD?) 35 & 17 -/+ Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 9.23" Snow -.87 33 & 14 -/- Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 25.29" Snow +2.44 --.--" H20) (ERROR?) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (10.81" H2O) -.01 Suspect Suspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 43.82" Snow +4.27 (13.08" H2O) +.42 36 & 16 -/- South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (16.0 H2O) = 0.0 37 & 14 -/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 2.6" Snow +.6 39 & 25 -/- Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 22.44" Snow -1.09 31 & 18 +/- (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than sixteen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only sixteen fronts of any substance. 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps Top	23 Beware COLD PLUNGE Top Top 2017 Diminishing downpours	24 Moderate Weak FRONT Crossing Central California at NOON LOCAL TIME WINTER of 2018 Top 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps	25 Moderate Weak FRONT Crossing Central California 2018 *HIGH SIERRA* --WINTER-- Temp-Snow Check "Ending" -report of seventeenth* Snow-storm this Fall & Winter. The last front came across over the 24th to present. Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.LATE PM REPORT Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps. Last: Jan 22, 2018 NEW WATER YEAR N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for full report. "+/- & =" are changes since last reading. Tahoe Basin Watershed Rubicon 16" +0 7618 feet (15.8 H2O) +0 40 & 28 Echo Peak 35" +0 7652 feet (24.6 H2O) +0 American-Yuba Watersheds Carson Pass 33" +9 8388 feet (12.4" H2O) +.6 36 & 25 +/+ Carson-Walker Watersheds Ebbetts Pass 41 "+5 8660 feet (17.50" H2O) +.8 37 & 24 +/+ Leavitt Lake 66 " +5 (errors) 9602 feet, East Flank (17.5" H20) +.8 32 & 21 +/+ Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank FULL REPORT VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND xx & xx: (New readout page sucks... & Tech issues) Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds Deadman Creek 9250 feet, West Flank 000.0 Snow (BAD?) (17.64" H20) +0.36 (BAD?) 35 & 9 +/- Tuolumne-Merced Watersheds Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet, West Flank 18.03" Snow +8.8 40 & 4 +/- Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet 30.83" Snow +5.54 --.--" H20) (ERROR?) (Temps NONE) Mammoth Mountain Ski Mono Lake-Owens Basin Gem Pass 10750 feet SNO " Depth Suspect (11.39" H2O) +.58 Suspect Suspect temps suspect Mammoth Pass 9500 feet 70.2" Snow +26.2 (13.2" H2O) +.12 38 & 6 +/- South Lake Cabin 9580 feet, East Flank (Snow BAD") (16.0 H2O) = 0.0 38 & 8 +/- Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet, East Flank 4.3" Snow +1.7 34 & 0 -/- Kings River Bishop Pass 11972 feet BAD- BAD Charlotte Lake 10398 feet, West Flank TEMPS ONLY -- & -- BAD (The coldest station) Kern Watershed Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet 22.86" Snow +0.42 35 & 3 +/- (station reporting again!) All High Sierra Reporting Stations * We've had more than seventeen fronts come across the Sierra, and periods of spitting snow, but only seventeen fronts of any substance.	26 Clearing Big High Built-In Beware COLD PLUNGE 2018 Snowpack: Percent of Average for January 26. (Change since Jan 20.) N Sierra: 27% (+10%) Cen. Sierra: 35% (+7%) S Sierra: 24% (+3%) Ca State: 30% (+8%) Last: Jan 20 Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF LAST WEEK NEXT WEEK 2017 Clear Blue Skies. 2017 Spring Prospects If this transport mechanism brings tropical rains to the Sierra during the Spring Thaw, as it did during Fall, we will see the biggest Spring Thaw in living memory. The cards building this hand are still on the table, and Nature is still dealing us Wild Cards: Great Flood of 1862, Wiki Top	27 Top All Snow Data Surface Low Pressure Tracks Selected Resources Radar Visible Satellites Water Vapor Satellites MAPS Sierra Forecasts Western US Forecasts Precip Animation & Charts Graphical Precip Forecast All Sierra Snow Info Sierra Sensor Networks Watersheds and Selected Network of Crestline Sensors High Sierra Highways All Weather Information Top 2017 Clear Blue Skies High off CA Coast Top
Sunday	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
28 Clearing Big High Built-In Vast High sitting off whole West Coast of United States 2017 Clear Blue Skies, High off CA Coast 2016 Sierra approaching season-normal snow and precip for first time in years.	29 Clear Big High Built-In Top	30 Big High Generating Heat All Snow Data Surface Low Pressure Tracks Selected Resources Radar Visible Satellites Water Vapor Satellites MAPS Sierra Forecasts Western US Forecasts Precip Animation & Charts Graphical Precip Forecast All Sierra Snow Info Sierra Sensor Networks Watersheds and Selected Network of Crestline Sensors High Sierra Highways All Weather Information	31 Big High Generating Heat 2018 Snowpack: Percent of Average for January 31. (Change since Jan 26.) N Sierra: 29% (+2%) Cen. Sierra: 35% (+0%) S Sierra: 21% (-3%) Ca State: 30% (+0%) Last: Jan 26 Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF The Sierra on January 31 by... MODIS SIERRA SATELLITE Visible Satellites Water Vapor Satellites 2017 First "REAL" Winter since the Winter of 2010-2011	1 February 2018 REALTIME High Sierra Crestline Reporting Stations (Compare with the 25th) Rubicon 7618 feet Carson Pass 8388 feet Ebbetts Pass 8660 feet Leavitt Lake 9602 feet Marine Base 6748 feet East Flank Deadman Creek 9250 feet Tuolumne Meadows 8600 feet Tioga Pass/Dana 9798 feet Gem Pass 10750 feet Mammoth Pass 9500 feet South Lake Cabin 9580 feet Big Pine Sawmill 10200 feet Bishop Pass 11972 feet Charlotte Lake 10398 feet Upr Tyndall Creek 11441 feet All High Sierra Reporting Stations 2017 Snow Depth, 24 hour high & low temps	2 WINTER of 2018 LAST WEEK NEXT MONTH 2017 Clear Blue Skies High off CA Coast	3 Top February 2018 2017 Current Snowpack: Percent of Average for February 3. N Sierra: 145% Cen. Sierra: 174% S Sierra: 198% Ca State: 171% Statewide Summary of Snow Water Content PDF Last Reading Jan. 20 Also See Norms, Accumulations, and Anomalies Top February 2018

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2018 NOTES

A CRITICAL YEAR

SUSPENDED BETWEEN GROWING POPULATION AND DIMINISHING GLOBAL FERTILITY

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2017 NOTES

Early Jan
So far we've had a typically strange Winter, as we've increasingly had for the past couple of decades. The Fall and early Winter storm activity we've seen so far this season have all come out of the Southwest and West, rather than the typical-traditional Winter storm track out of the Northwest. These storms have been sufficient to put a reasonable, if low, percentage of normal snowpack onto the High Sierra for this time of year. My concern is the reasons why. See my note of December 29, 2016. So far, the conditions into early Jan:

Weak, warm Arctic.

High temps, low differential between lowest Lows and highest Highs. Little temp difference ahead/behind front lines.

Rebirth of the Great High?

Mid Month
Terrific transport of warm tropical moisture out of Southwest followed up by cold flow out of West; still nothing out the Northwest. What a world!

History:
2016 NOTE
"2016’s El Nino weather is forming up for a reasonable snowpack for the first time in five years. 2014 and 2015 were the earliest openings of the high trails I remember. The year before was one of the latest. Extremes have become the new normal. This year's El Nino is setting up for a high probability of extremes rain and snow hitting the West Coast of the US. Where? is the question. The El Nino tropical flows have been transported North around California by a persistent ridge of High Pressure.

Let's see how that sucker stands up, now that heavy tropical activity has begun North of Indonesia. (And then stood down) "

2017
Ironic Note: The huge El Nino of 2016, which indicates heavy precip, delivered a below-average snowpack to the Sierra last year. This year's La Nina, which typically indicates a cold, dry Winter, is delivering a huge snowpack.

NOTE
JANUARY 2017 ASSESMENT
January 20
Wow. Finally, a Winter. A real Winter. Not out of the typical direction we would expect Winter to come from (the NW), but at this point, who's quibbling? Not I. The real interesting part I take note of was the rain across the Sierra Crest on the 6th and 7th. Well, that's what we get when our Winter is coming out the Southwest, rather than the Northwest.

These same warm tropical flows during Winter have also been pushing increasing mid-Winter floods and rain turning into vast ice storms into the mid-West and even the South for years and years now, regardless of if these storms cross or go around the Sierra on their way East.
This change in the direction and character of our Winter Weather (from the Southwest, rather than the Northwest; being tropically warmer, wetter, and passing around, rather than across the Sierra) has not yet brought its worse effects to the Sierrra. Well, besides a deepening and enduring drought. Despite this interesting tropical respite we are experiencing, actually bringing tropical storms from Dec 2016 through today (Jan 20, 2017), "breaking" the drought we've been experiencing for the past six years.

Besides rain falling into the Sierra during mid-Winter not being "banked" as snow for the subsequent Summer, the fact we are watching rain falling on the Crest in January offers a bad omen for the storms of Spring. The Arctic has remained warm so far this Winter. This has weakened the N Jet Stream through the Gulf Alaska. Stationary Lows in Gulf Alaska have pulled significant tropical moisture Northeast into the Sierra.
We will see some amazing thaw events If that trend driving our Winter so far, of stationary or wandering Lows in Gulf Alaska sucking warm tropical storms out of the Southwest, continues into the Spring Thaw.

We could very well see the same transport mechanism of warm and dense precip out of the sub-tropics, that is currently driving snow accumulation in the Sierra, strip the High Sierra of snow as quickly as it was laid down. These warm conditions and storm transport out of the Southwest opens enduring prospects for both current and late-season rain on a deep, warm snowpack, then covered by more snow. These conditions in the sky and on the ground bring certain short and long term hazard effects into play.

Danger-Danger
In the short term we are faced with a range of very bad layering conditions in the snowpack. Most storms require a few days to fall down the mountain (avalanches) and for the snow itself to compress for easier travel. There are always danger zones left behind we must identify.
What we saw with the current deposition pattern of snow, rain, snow, and rain across the Sierra Crest will leave many areas where faults in the snowpack are preserved, far beyond the typical times it takes for gravity to settle snow. Areas that would typically be trustworthy will be untrustworthy.

These rain and snow layers will leave enduring zones of dangerous avalanche conditions that will remain until they are triggered or melt. Many of these danger zones will be beyond our ability to observe, and within zones we would normally consider safe by good common sense observations. Beware! That is why we observe so carefully. Our observations of weather resources, such as the real time reporting stations above, have given us temp and snow depth reports that tell us that rain has fallen on this year's snowpack. That tells us the snowpack contains significant hidden faults and threats. Beware!

Our technical reports give us valuable safety information if we intrepret them correctly.

In the longer trem of the enduring drought this rain falling on the Sierra Crest that we saw during the rains of the 6th and 7th fortells the potential for a seriously weak snowpack, both through the threat of Winter rains triggering a serious and rapid diminishment of the Winter snowpack, or even worse, triggering a precipitious thaw during Spring.

What I am most seriously concerned with at this time is the mechanism driving these powerful tropical flows setting up any time, but most especially as the Spring Thaw begins, when rising temps and river flows can threaten some serious Spring flooding. The whole San J Valley has been under 40 feet of water before, and it will happen again. This year is still "in the running" for epic outcomes.

Great Flood of 1862, Wiki

BOTTOM LINES
Drought-wise? Though we have a hell of a lot of snow and water now (finally), we certainly cannot count ourselves out of this drought until we've actually captured it. Our current snowpack now is only as good as it will be on the first day of Spring, and that's only beneficial if we can catch these Spring flows for Summertime use. That's the trick, and the prospect of warm rains makes that task even trickier.

Rain falling across the Sierra Crest during "Winter" is an instant and serious diminishment of "banked" snow providing water through Spring. Warm rains falling on the Crest during mid-Winter are also an "Omen," warning us of the much higer potential for warm rains much later during Spring, when the prospect of rain falling on a warm, wet, heavy snowpack of Spring gives pause to water managers (and all sensible folk) all over California.

Rains falling during the Spring Thaw creates a powerfull flow requiring water managers let most of the surging power of the Spring Thaw, and the water it is traveling through, flow straight through their system into the sea. Trying to contain/retain this type of power will bust all the dams.

The 22nd
Traditional Storm Track trying to form up, meaning a North Jet Stream across the Gulf Alaska from the Aleutians to the NW corner of the USA. Much cooler Storms/front lines now coming out of West and NW, rather than the warm storms out of the Southwest we experienced through December into mid January. Will this traditional cooling trend strengthen and deepen, or break back down into warm storms out of the Southwest?

The 24th
This is the third clear day during the Series of Storms that have struck since January 1. That adds up to twenty-one days of one degree or another of precipitation during the month of Janurary, so far. Even the days between the front lines brought rain, up to the 24th. Thus a huge snowpack sits on the Sierra, and much of the rest of California's soils are saturated, and our rivers, lakes, and creeks have risen to full, if not flood stages.
The environmental balance has shifted from deep Drought to fear of Flood and Slide. These radical storms and these radical changes in seasonal trends are signs of an unstable system flopping between extremes. I can't wait to see what happens next... Will the East Pac Ridge build in? Will tropical storms continue to deluge us from the Southwest? Will a normal storm track open up out of the Northwest? Will all the above happen in some strange "weather jumble?" We will see.

COLD WARNING

The 31st
High built in off Coast of California from 24th to the 29th, and is presently breaking down. It's role deflecting the flow of the Tropical Transport Mechanism to our North is now shifting to directing it towards us.

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Permits
Yosemite National Park and Desolation Wilderness accept reservations six months in advance for Summer backpacking dates.

June 2016 reservations are available in January, July in February, and so on.

Yosemite Permits

Desolation Wilderness

Hoover Wilderness

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BACKGROUND
The trajectory of the cold, rain, and snows of January provide both excellent backpacking experiences and establish the terms, a baseline for this year’s transition into Spring Conditions.

Regular storm activity laid atop a deep pack of Winter snows wrapped in cold temps indicate a long Winter into Spring transition.

Light snows and irregular storm activity sprinkled on a thin snow pack under high temperatures indicates an early and rapid transitions into Spring and Summer conditions.

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