Killer Sunset at The Sisters near Carson Pass
Lake Tahoe to Mount Whitney: Crown Jewel of the Pacific Crest Trail
Need a Map? Lost Al near Lost Keys Lake
Emigrant Wilderness under Tropical Thunderstorm, September.
Round Top Lake
Whitebarks and Grizzly Peak in Emigrant Wilderness under Tropical Clouds during September 2013
Lost Keys Lake
 

Lake Tahoe to Mount Whitney
Trail Guide, Magazine, & High Sierra Backpacker's Trails and Topics Forums


HIGH SIERRA BACKPACKER'S
Calendar

 

November
2018

 

Important Seasonal Happenings, Transitions, Events, & Dates
for
High Sierra Backpackers

 

Road Conditions, Resupply, Seasonal Transition Concerns, Permit Dates, Weather, Water, and Mosquitoes

 

 

 

Last Year
2017

 

THIS YEAR
News, Views, & Issues
November
2018
High Sierra
News
AUGUST
2018
Backpacker
Alerts
2018
Natural Meltdown
High Sierra
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TOPICS
High Sierra
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INDEX
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MILES
INDEX
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2018
High Sierra
Backpacking Calendar

January         February         March         April         May         June

July         August         September         October         November         December

 

 

November
2018

Last Week in October

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

TRAILHEAD

Last Year

 

November 2018
Looking back at the two Palisades Lakes below, with the Palisade Range
rising to their Right as we climb through shattered rock to Mather Pass

Muir Pass and Black Giant beyond Wanda Lake.
Turning around to take a last look at the Pallisade Lakes below, the Palisades Range surrounding them on the Right, and us hiking through the shattered rock leading South to Mather Pass.

Trail Guide           Map           Miles and Elevations: Not yet online

November 2018

Top of Page

January       February       March       April       May       June     July     August     September       October       November       December
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deploy Winter Gear
Our “base” layers are typically brought from Fall to Winter Standards during the month of November.
Our shell layers are thickened to Winter Standards as well.
Winter Shell, boots, socks, gloves and camp gear all come into play. I love my down snow-camp booties!

Retire the water filter and bear canister.

 

Probabilities of Overnight Freezing Next Five Days

Current Weather Map

 

THINKING ABOUT NEXT YEAR?
You Should be...

November is the time to begin thinking about reserving permits in Desolation Wilderness or Yosemite National Park for next June. Half of each ‘s Wilderness Permits at these heavily used areas are available six months before the start date of the backpacking trip

 

 

 

2018 Status

The beginning of November has brought us One Storm since May, beeing the mini-downpours that happened on the second day of October. We are currently experiencing another Drought Fall, Otherwise known as, the, "New Normal."

 

 

 

2017 Status

Despite last Winter's extreme snowpack cancelling the early & middle of the Summer of 2017 Backpacking Season (for all but the strongest & most skilled) before it melted out, the end of the Summer into Fall turned brutally tropical HOT & DRY, again bringing record temps, record fires, vast smoke coverage, and sure looking exactly like every one of the last 7 or 8 preceeding, "drought Falls."

Except for last Winter's massive snowpack, you'd think the drought never really ended.

We need another wet Winter to put another nail into the drought's coffin. Let's watch how this Winter Evolves.

What Brings This Winter of 2017-2018?
Predictions and Probabilities for the Upcoming Winter

We enter November 2017 coming off
a
HEAT WAVE
moderating into
Temperate Weather
&
First Substantial Storm approaching
Winter of 2018

WINTER GEAR REQUIRED
November 3

 

 

 

 

2016 Status
High temp storms out of the Southwest have been bringing wet and snow conditions to the High Sierra. Wet and Cold conditions create a special kind of hazard that must be anticipated.

Early storms in Oct 2016 brought some drought relief to North Cal and snow along the whole Sierra Crest, it did little to alleviate SoCal Drought

We enter November 2016 with
a
COLD & WET GEAR ALERT

 

 

 


October 30

Warm-Temperate

 

 

 

LAST MONTH

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

More
High Sierra
Backpacker Information

Guide Trailhead

Guide Index

High Sierra Magazine

HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS

HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS

GEAR FORUMS

GEAR LIST

October 31

Halloween

RED FLAG WARNING

Weather Notes

1> RED FLAG WARNING,
NW & Central-West Sierra

WINTER OMENS
2> We've had a Big Blob off NW USA, now up in Gulf Alaska, for a while now.

October 2018: The Blob is Back?

SST & El Nino Data

Now, a Big High has been setting up in a position with behavior reminiscent of the Big Blocking Ridge that characterized the depths of the drough in '15.

The Big Blocking Ridge an Existential Threat

North Pacific Maps

This combination of factors is indicative of a dry Winter in the Sierra, if they persist, even if a vast, powerful El Nino does form up.
The High, when in the proper, "resiliant ridge," formation, will deflect the tropical moisture transport mechanisms carrying supercharged tropical moisture from the El Nino to the North and South of the Sierra, and much of the NW of the US, if it sets up like it did during 2015-16...

Is it?
This set-up is looking famaliar...like a, "NEW NORMAL," and we'll see if it holds, and how it develops.

Last Massive El Nino Foreshadows Magnitude of Next

Earlier
Best 2018 Weather Assessment at the Footstep of Fall

Trail News, Oct 30, 2018

 

2017

 

 

 

CCC
Backcountry Trail Crew
Applications due
EARLY FEB 2018

 

2017
Temperate-Cooling

End of Daylight Savings

 

Halloween

THE 2017 QUESTION
When is the First Real Storm going to hit the Sierra Nevada?

We've had 1 (?) weak episode of weather across the crest so far this Fall, with rather, "pacific,"and temperate weather, so far.

When will two feet fall?

 

1 November

Warm

WINTER WATCH

WINTER WARNING
Be ready for
Winter Temperatures
&
Conditions

Winter Gear Elements
Must be Included in your Kit for Safety

Clear Conditions can now bring Deep Cold!
Stormy Conditions will bring Snow!

 

 

2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
2nd
Temp-Snow Check

 

Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.

Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps.

Last Report:
October 27, 2018

 

A NEW WATER YEAR:
Total Precipitation

58 % of Average

A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs

 

N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations

"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.

Tahoe Basin
Watershed

Rubicon .0" -.6
7618 feet
(1.7 H2O) +.1
53 & 33 -/-

Echo Peak .0" -.3
7652 feet
(2.0 H2O) +.2
56 & 33 -/-

American-Yuba Watersheds

Carson Pass 0" -1.0
8388 feet
(.7" H2O) -.1
53 & 30 -/-

Carson-Walker
Watershed
s

Ebbetts Pass 0"
8660 feet
(0.9" H2O) -.1
49 & 26 -/-

Leavitt Lake 0"
9602 feet, East Flank
(1.4" H20) =
47 & 30 -/-

Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
61 & 14 -/-

Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds

Deadman Creek
9250 feet, West Flank
000.0 Snow (BAD?)
(.16" H20)
+.05
50 & 27 -/-

Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds

Tenaya Lake .34" -1.75"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
60 & 21 -/-

Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
0.04" -1.19"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
58 & 20 -/-

Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
-.--" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
48 & 25 -/-

Mammoth Mountain Ski

Mono Lake-Owens Basin

Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(3.85" H2O) Suspect -.02
temps bad

Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
0.12" Snow -.12"
(1.44" H2O) =
51 & 39 x/x

South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) suspect
65 & 26 -/-

Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
1.4" Snow -1.6"
47 & 24 -/-

Kings River

Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD-
BAD

Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY

-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)

Kern Watershed

Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
7.92" -.16"
Snow suspect

50 & 28 -/-
(station reporting again!)

All High Sierra
Reporting Stations

*We've had virtually zero fronts of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then.

 

 

2

Warming Up

 

 

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

NEW
Temp & Snow Tables by Watershed and Highway Corridor

 

Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.

 

Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status

 

Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page

 

 

3

 

Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MONTH

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

TOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST MONTH

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

TOP

 

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

4

End of Daylight Savings

Spring Forward, Fall Back...

 

DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME

THE DST RULES
NIST

PDT
Information

Move clocks one hour back in time.

Why do we think we can manipulate Time & Nature, when the main thing we are changing, screwing-up, is ourselves?

Well, Nature too...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

Guy Fawkes Day

 

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

NEW
Temp & Snow Tables by Watershed and Highway Corridor

 

Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.

 

Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status

 

Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page

 

 

 

 

2017

Review Second Week of November

6

Temperate-Warm
Fine Weather

 

 

Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability

 

The Weather Page

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

TOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

7

Temperate-Warm
Fine Weather

 

 

 

 

 

 

More
High Sierra
Backpacker Information

Guide Trailhead

Guide Index

High Sierra Magazine

HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS

HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS

GEAR FORUMS

GEAR LIST

8

Temperate-Warm
Fine Weather

COLD NIGHTS

RED FLAG WARNING

Heavy Winds

Early November
(feels like June-July)
Second Major Fire Season of 2018 begins...

FIRES START

Fire Reports

 

Weather Notes

Same as on October 31...

1> RED FLAG WARNING,
NW & Central-West Sierra

WINTER OMENS
2> We've had a Big Blob off NW USA, now up in Gulf Alaska, for a while now.

October 2018: The Blob is Back?

SST & El Nino Data

Now, a Big High has been setting up in a position with behavior reminiscent of the Big Blocking Ridge that characterized the depths of the drough in '15.

The Big Blocking Ridge an Existential Threat

North Pacific Maps

See the 31st, above

 

2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
3rd
Temp-Snow Check

 

Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.

Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps.

Last Report:
November 1, 2018

 

A NEW WATER YEAR:
Total Precipitation

58 % of Average

A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs

 

N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations

"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.

Tahoe Basin
Watershed

Rubicon .0" =.0
7618 feet
(1.5 H2O) -.2
53 & 28 =/-

Echo Peak .0" =.0
7652 feet
(1.7 H2O) -.3
54 & 27 -/-

American-Yuba Watersheds

Carson Pass 2" +1.0
8388 feet
(.6" H2O) -.1
54 & 22 +/-

Carson-Walker
Watershed
s

Ebbetts Pass 0" =.0
8660 feet
(0.8" H2O) -.1
54 & 18 +/-

Leavitt Lake 0"
9602 feet, East Flank
(1.4" H20) =
52 & 16 +/-

Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
63 & 20 +/+

Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds

Deadman Creek
9250 feet, West Flank
000.0 Snow (BAD?)
(.00" H20)
-.16
47 & 18 -/-

Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds

Tenaya Lake .??" .34"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
56 & 22 -/+

Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
0.33" +.29"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
54 & 16 -/-

Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
-.--" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
47 & 17 -/-

Mammoth Mountain Ski

Mono Lake-Owens Basin

Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(3.55" H2O) Suspect +.10
temps bad

Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
0.26" Snow +.14"
(1.44" H2O) =
32 & 18 -/-

South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) = suspect
60 & 22 -/-

Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
.8" Snow -.8"
50 & 19 +/-

Kings River

Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD-
BAD

Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY

-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)

Kern Watershed

Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
0.6" -7.32"
Snow suspect

47 & 29 -/+
(station reporting again!)

All High Sierra
Reporting Stations

*We've had virtually zero fronts of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then.

9

Temperate-Warm
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

WINDS
Calming Up North

Windy Down South

 

Camp Fire,
Butte Co, Calfire

Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County FD

 

Fire Reports

 

Widespread
North Calif
Red Flag Warnings

Hazard Map

 

Last Year's Fires
Early October, 2017

 

 

 

WEATHER CONDITIONS Forecasts & Analysis

Run the Models

Also See
Regional Snow Analysis Sierra Nevada for this date

National Weather
Service
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS

 

High Sierra Weather

 

 

 

What Happened Now?

2017

Review Second Week of November

2016
November 2016

2015
November 2015

10

Temperate-Warm
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

WINDS
Moderate Up North

Moderate Down South

Winds? Weather?

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

Widespread
North
&
SoCal's
Coastal Fire Zone
Red Flag Warnings

Hazard Map

Fire Reports

 

 

 

Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now

Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages

 

Winds? Weather?

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

Precipitation

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS

 

 

Let's look at the
Big Picture

The Pacific Ocean

Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below

 

US Weather Map

 

All Maps

 

All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

 

TOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOP

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

11

VETERANS DAY

 

Temperate-Warm
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

Fire Report

 

Widespread
Hazard Alerts:
Smoke and Fire

North Cal's
and
SoCal's
Fire Zones:

Both Operating Under
Red Flag Warnings
&
Smoke Hazards

 

Hazard Map

 

 

NOTE
There is A Serious Threat of More Fires Breaking Out.

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

 

 

 

2017

Review Third Week of November

12

Temperate-Cooler
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

Fire Report

 

 

SoCal's
Coastal Fire Zone
Red Flag Warning

Hazard Map

SMOKE HAZARD WARNING OVER
SOUTH SAN J VALLEY

WIDESPREAD SMOKE
Rising & Falling

 

 

Important:
FORECASTING
WINDS

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

 

 

 

 

 

13

Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

Fire Report

 

Camp Fire,
Butte Co, Calfire

 

Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County, Calfire

Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County FD

 

 

SoCal's
Coastal Fire Zone
Red Flag Warning

 

Hazard Map

 

Air Now
All Smoke Reporting Stations Map

 

Rain Predicted for Next Tuesday, Nov 20th.

2017

 

 

More
High Sierra
Backpacker Information

Guide Trailhead

Guide Index

High Sierra Magazine

HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS

HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS

GEAR FORUMS

GEAR LIST

14

Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

Fire Report

Massive N Cal Smoke

NO RED FLAG WARNINGS!

 

FORECASTING
WINDS

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

 

 

REALTIME
High Sierra Crestline
Reporting Stations

(Compare with the 8th)

Carson Pass
8388 feet

Ebbetts Pass
8660 feet

Leavitt Lake
9602 feet

Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank

Deadman Creek
9250 feet

Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet

Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet

Gem Pass
10750 feet

Mammoth Pass
9500 feet


South Lake Cabin
9580 feet

Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet

Bishop Pass
11972 feet

Charlotte Lake
10398 feet

Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet

 

All High Sierra
Reporting Stations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

TOP

 

15

Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRES

COLD NIGHTS

Fire Report

Massive N Cal Smoke

NO RED FLAG WARNINGS

 

Camp Fire,
Butte Co, Calfire

 

Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County, Calfire

Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County FD

 

2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
4th
Temp-Snow Check

 

Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.

Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and 24 hour high-low temps.

Last Report:
November 8, 2018

 

A NEW WATER YEAR:
Total Precipitation

58 % of Average

A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs

 

N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations

"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.

Tahoe Basin
Watershed

Rubicon .0" =.0
7618 feet
(1.7 H2O) +.2
52 & 39 -/+

Echo Peak .0" =.0
7652 feet
(2.1 H2O) +.5
55 & 38 +/+

American-Yuba Watersheds

Carson Pass 2" +1.0
8388 feet
(.8" H2O) +.2
55 & 32 +/+

Carson-Walker
Watershed
s

Ebbetts Pass 0" =.0
8660 feet
(0.9" H2O) +.1
55 & 36 +/+

Leavitt Lake 0"
9602 feet, East Flank
(1.4" H20) =
50 & 38 -/+

Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
65 & 14 +/-

Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds

Deadman Creek
9250 feet, West Flank
000.0 Snow (BAD?)
(.00" H20)
=.00
54 & 23 +/+

Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds

Tenaya Lake .0"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
59 & 26 +/+

Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
1.73" +1.4"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
59 & 19 +/+

Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
-.--" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
54 & 26 +/+

Mammoth Mountain Ski

Mono Lake-Owens Basin

Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(3.78" H2O) Suspect +.10
temps bad

Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
0.03" Snow -.23"
(1.44" H2O) =
53 & 31 +/+

South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) = suspect
56 & 29 -/+

Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
1.7" Snow +.9"
47 & 24 -/+

Kings River

Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD-
BAD

Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY

-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)

Kern Watershed

Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
0.21" -.39"
Snow suspect

44 & 31 -/+
(station reporting again!)

Crabtree Meadow
10,700 feet
(.33 H2O)
-- & -- x/x

All High Sierra
Reporting Stations

*We've had virtually zero fronts of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then.

 

16

Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRE(S)

COLD NIGHTS

Massive N Cal Smoke

Fire Report

Woolsey Fire @ 69%
containment

 

 

Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now

Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages

 

Winds? Weather?

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

Precipitation

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
PRECIP FORECAST

 

 

Let's look at the
Big Picture

The Pacific Ocean

Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below

 

US Weather Map

 

All Maps

 

All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it

 

17

Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)

DIRE FIRE(S)

COLD NIGHTS

Massive N Cal Smoke

Fire Report

Camp Fire @ 55%
containment

Woolsey Fire @ 82%
containment

Relief Coming
Precipitation is expected next Tuesday
(Precip Animation).

Between four and five inches of rain will fall on the area of the Camp Fire by next Saturday, if today's seven-day rain chart is correct.

 

Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability

 

2017

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

 

TOP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

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Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

18

 

Trail Guide
Trailhead

High Sierra Forums
The Backpacker's Blog

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

NEW
Temp & Snow Tables by Watershed and Highway Corridor

 

Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.

 

Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status

 

Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page

 

 

2017

Review Third Week of November

 

19

 

2017

20

 

 

 

Want to Watch?

The
High Sierra
Weather Page

 

All Satellite Views

All Radar Views

All Snow-Precip Forecasts

 

All High Sierra
ZONE FORECASTS

 

 

 

 

21

 

 


Current Surface Lows
&
7-Day Freezing Temps

 

 

 

Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now

Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages

 

Winds? Weather?

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

Precipitation

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN-SNOW FORECASTS

 

 

Let's look at the
Big Picture

The Pacific Ocean

Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below

 

US Weather Map

 

All Maps

 

All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it

 

22

THANKSGIVING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

23

 

 

Review
November of 2017
against
November of 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

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Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

25

 

 

 

More
High Sierra
Backpacker Information

Guide Trailhead

Guide Index

High Sierra Magazine

HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS

HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS

GEAR FORUMS

GEAR LIST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017

Review Fourth Week of November

26

 

 

2017

 

 

Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now

Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages

 

Winds? Weather?

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

 

Precipitation

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS

 

 

Let's look at the
Big Picture

The Pacific Ocean

Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below

 

US Weather Map

 

All Maps

 

All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it

27

 

 

 

 

The
High Sierra
Weather Page

 

HAZARDS

 

All
Satellite
Views

 

All
Radar
Views

 

All
Snow-Precip Forecasts

 

All High Sierra
ZONE
FORECASTS

 

All High Sierra
POINT
FORECASTS

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

 

28

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

TOP

29

 

 

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW
Temp & Snow Tables by Watershed and Highway Corridor

 

Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.

 

Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status

 

Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page

 

30

 

 

Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT WEEK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 December

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

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Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

2

 

 

LATEST
HIGH SIERRA
TRAIL NEWS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2017

Review Fourth Week of November

3

 

 

MORE
HIGH SIERRA
Backpacker

RESOURCES

Sierra Highways

CalTrans
Trans-Sierra Highways

 

October
Trans-Sierra Highway News

 

 

Trail Guide Index

 

 

 

HIGH SIERRA
Backpacker
NEWS

October
High Sierra
Trail, Terrain,
&
Weather News

 

 

Current
HIGH SIERRA
Mountain Safety Incidents

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top of Calendar

 

 

 

4

 

 

 

 

2017

 

 

Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now

Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages

 

Winds? Weather?

NorCal Graphics

SoCal & SW US

 

 

Precipitation

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS

 

 

Let's look at the
Big Picture

The Pacific Ocean

Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below

 

US Weather Map

 

All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it

 

 

 

2017

5

 

Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability

 

 

Review
November of 2017
against
November of 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT MONTH

 

TOP

 

6

 

 

 

 

TOP

 

 

REALTIME
High Sierra Crestline
Reporting Stations

(Compare with the 15th)

Carson Pass
8388 feet

Ebbetts Pass
8660 feet

Leavitt Lake
9602 feet

Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank

Deadman Creek
9250 feet

Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet

Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet

Gem Pass
10750 feet

Mammoth Pass
9500 feet


South Lake Cabin
9580 feet

Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet

Bishop Pass
11972 feet

Charlotte Lake
10398 feet

Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet

 

All High Sierra
Reporting Stations

7

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

NEW
Temp & Snow Table
by Watershed and Highway Corridor

 

Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.

 

Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status

 

Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT MONTH

 

8

 

MORE
HIGH SIERRA
Backpacker
RESOURCES

 

The
High Sierra
Weather Page

 

HAZARDS

 

All
High Sierra Satellite
Views

 

All
High Sierra Radar
Views

 

All
Snow-Precip
High Sierra Forecasts

 

All High Sierra
ZONE
FORECASTS

 

All High Sierra
POINT
FORECASTS

 

 

SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS

 

 

LAST WEEK

NEXT MONTH

 

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NOTES:
Highways 120 and 4 will close for the season with the first heavy snowfall.
November Road News
4, 108, & 120 closed on the 14th.

 

2018 Status

Weather Notes
November 2, 2018

The beginning of November has brought us One Storm since May, beeing the mini-downpours that happened on the second day of October. We are currently experiencing another Drought Fall, Otherwise known as, the, "New Normal."

 

 

Weather Notes
November 5, 2017

This first "cold" storm-front of the season that just passed through the Sierra over the last two days was a "dud," producing up to two inches of snow, rather than the forecast potential of two feet. There's a reason for that, and more was brought by this last front than snow alone. It's a harbinger of the season, our first looks at this Winter's pattern formation.

This first "cold" storm-front of the season that just passed through over the last two days was running from just NE of Hawaii, across the bottom, across the South end of a vast cold High coming Southeast out of the Bearing Straight & across Gulf Alaska. That High is now dropping South out of the Gulf Alaska, and it is currently bringing our next low down around its Eastern edge.

The next cold storm-front we are watching today is now bending Northwest from a Low sitting off the coast of Washington (to the East of the High), as this front is being pushed down and around the N Pac High, along with its attached Low, to the Southeast draging its seriously cold front along behind it.

"Behind" this next Low is another Low sitting above at the top of the N Pac High that's itself sliding South across Gulf Alaska.

That next Low, and the prospective Low behind it, are "loaded-up" to the North of the East Pac High, which is the configuration of the classic "West Coast Storm Gate." The "gate" depends on the location of the East Pacific High. At the proper location the East Pac High conducts Lows and their associated Fronts around its Northern perimeter, across the Aleutians around the top of its bulge, to "fire them up," then sweeps them down the Eastern edge of the High into the West Coast of the USA. That's the classic N Pac Storm Gate bringing Winter to the Sierra Nevada.

What we are seeing is the first formations of the classic Storm Gate as the chill of Fall deepens into Winter. Will this formation hold? Will the East Pac High slide North into the "void" created by a warmer Arctic, blocking the West Coast of the US, as was typical of our drought years? Was this drought position of the N Pac High "transitory," with the drought, or is this more Northern position of the East Pac High the new way Winter works in our "new," much warmer world's new weather pattern?

I'm thinking it's the latter, judging by the slow, decades-long Northern creep of the Winter-time positioning of the East Pac High. Nonetheless, the Forecasts show the beginnings of a classic "Storm Gate" formation over the next few days, bringing a couple of more Lows & their Associated Cold Fronts across the Sierra from the North. Classic.

The question is, "Will the Gate formation hold?" Will it predominate this Winter? That would be great news for the Sierra Forests, putting the dagger of final death into the heart of the drought.

This link below always shows the latest run of Animated, and the latest detailed N Pacific Weather Maps. If you view the animated map on Nov. 5 you will see the scenario I explained.

Animated Pacific Weather Maps

Pacific Weather Map

 

High Sierra Weather Page

All Maps

Tracking Sierra Nevada Weather
Fall to Winter, 2017

High Sierra Trail, Terrain, & Related News, Science & Events
November 2017

 

2016

We are emerging from the first wet October I can remember since the Fall of 2010.

Nov 3 2016
So far I would characterize this Fall as Wet & Warm characterized by persistent NEast Pacific low dragging tropical fronts to the NE. This shape of the atmosphere has almost excluded Southern California from the flows of precip out of the Southwest, while the South Sierra still received a good dusting of snow.

The pressure, wind and temp factors necessary to bring cold storms out of the Northwest across the Aleutians to the Sierra have not set up, leaving the door open for continued warm storm activity out of the Southwest.

I believe that these warm, wet storms in high altitude conditions are very dangerous, and a real pain in the ass for dedicated Winter Travelers. During snow travel water is best when it is deeply frozen and cannot melt upon body contact when either falling from the sky or through ground contact. These current conditions of warm on the ground snow and warm falling snow melting upon body contact both create the potential for very hazardous cold and wet conditions to quickly evolve.

Remember what always happens after we get drenched? It freezes! Traveling through warm snow does not require snow falling to get us wet. Everything we touch melts!

My best Winter trips have been the coldest. Deep Cold creates a unique stability.

Anticipate the worse, expect the best, and we will be prepped and ready for the rest.

 

2015
EL NINO HISTORY:

A series of front lines "tied" to Central Pacific low pressure zones have been "dragged" across the West Coast by the lows.

The North end of the front lines are tied to the Low, while the line of the front runs Southwest to be anchored in East-Central Pacific tropical activity. Vast amounts of tropical moisture are transported along the front line between the low to the Northeast and the High to the Southwest.

So far these front lines transporting tropical moisture have been squarely pointed at Seattle in the Northwest corner of the US.

 

 

 

HIGH SIERRA
Winter Backpacker
WEATHER RESOURCES

 

ALL SNOW
INFORMATION

 

Snowfall
on the
Ground

 

Rain-Snow
Probabilities

 

Rain-Snow
Forecasts

HAZARD ALERT

November 4, 2017

BACKPACKER ALERT
WINTER GEAR REQUIRED

Moderate/weak-strength storm bringing up to 2 feet of snow to the Sierra Crest over this upcoming weekend.

Winter Gear Required.

Let's
Gear-Up for Winter

On September 15 the temps and conditions shifted enough to require shifting our gear setup from Summer to Fall gear kits.

FALL GEAR CHANGE UPON US,
Sept 15, 2017.

Now we've hit the Winter Line, and we've got to deploy the necessary elements of our Winter Gear Kit. Not the whole thing, but some serious Winter gear needs to come out now.

Four-Season High Sierra Gear List

 

 

 

 

 

2014 Calendar          2015 Calendar

2016 Calendar

2017 Calendar

 

 

 

 

2016
(& 2017, Too)

HAZARD ALERT
Oct 29 to Present, 2016
Nov 10 to Present, 2017
High Temps bring cold rains on the verge of being snow flurries, while snow flurries melt upon hiker contact:
THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS.
Excellent Gear Required.
We must be able to stay warm in freezing rains.

And warm after the rains end and the evening chill descends.

Even if the sky is clear we must anticipate the type of hazards that both clear skies or unexpected storm activity could bring.
Today those risks would be both unexpected very cold conditions and unexpected storm activity in "warm" conditions capable of bringing freezing rain.

GEAR ALERT
Oct 16 to Present, 2016
Excellent insulation layers required.

A gear kit designed for these potentially very harsh wet AND cold conditions is mandatory.

Not quite a full Winter setup is yet demanded, but one designed to deal with potentially very wet conditions accentuated by plunging cold temps.

Tricky!

 

 

Date Vs. Conditions on the Ground
The calendar says Winter Conditions, but what are the conditions on the ground?
Late season clarity can quickly shift to blizzard conditions.
Hope for the best, pack gear for the worse.

High Sierra Winter Weather

2014 Calendar          2015 Calendar

2016 Calendar

 

2017 Calendar

November

With or without snow on the Sierra, November brings very cold temps, and clear skies can turn dark and unleash heavy snow very quickly.

Summertime backpackers are tracking the trajectory of Winter conditions to guess-timate the date snows will clear from the high trails during Spring.

Wintertime backpackers are carefully tracking conditions to determine the best times to access the Winter Wonderland, if and when Winter comes across the 2017-18 divide.

2015 HISTORY

BACKPACKER ALERT

The threats are fire and tropical weather.

The enduring trend of shortening Winters and the subsequent significant diminishment of Rain and Snowpack during the last 25 years has evolved into a completely different weather pattern. The storms out of the Northwest, in fact the whole North Pacific Weather Pattern has been disrupted. I would say it has been shattered.

The various unhinged elements of our old pattern have not re-established a new pattern (they are still changing!), but two facts are crystal clear. First, our traditional pattern of Winter storms out of the Northwest has been shattered. It will likely re-occur every 3 to 7 years on a diminishing cycle. Winters dominated by storms out of the Northwest is done as the dominant feature driving Winter weather on the whole Northwest Coast of the US.

(I see two factors driving the Degradation of the North Pacific Winter Weather Pattern:

Factor
A> The significant warming of the Arctic Circle during Winter has diminished the polar region's ability to draw West Pacific storms up to the perimeter of its once powerful spinning vortex of brutal cold, to "power them up," and toss them across the West Coast of the US.

Factor B> The warmth of the North Pacific ocean surface and atmosphere during Winter in N Latitudes has deflected the path of the typical North Pacific Winter Jet Stream across the Northeast Pacific, leaving the West Coast of the US dry.
The combined effects of the warming Arctic Circle and North Pacific Jet Stream changes are also responsible for the great "slides" South of Cold Arctic air masses over the Mid-West and East Coast over the last few Winters, causing those "polar vortexes."

Typical Winter storm patterns are not being drawn up to the Arctic Circle, they are not being fired up by the spinning vortex of the North Polar Region during Winter, nor are the resulting super-charged storms riding the Jet Stream down to California. That's the pattern that's over, the old pattern that drove fertility in California and the High Sierra.)

Second, the temperatures and humidity have risen to levels un-natural for the North Latitudes. We appear to be moving towards a tropical "Wet and Dry"-season type of pattern at 38 N. We'll see. We've loosened the forces of chaos, now we will see what happens, and where they end up.

The establishment of new basic metrological conditions in the North Pacific and Arctic Ocean assures that this new weather pattern has just now begun to re-order the type and distribution of plant and animal life rapidly under its changed footprint, forcing all to adjust to the new reality. Here in California that will be through fire for the trees, and lack of water for the animals and humans.

New plants, animals, and trees more suited to the hotter, drier climate will replace those burned, until they too are supplanted.

For backpackers this means that the rising threats into this year's September are massive fires and unexpected tropical downpours.

 

Mountain Safety

?

 

 

Tahoe to Whitney

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2018
High Sierra
Backpacking Calendar

January         February         March         April         May         June

July         August         September         October         November         December

 

2014 Calendar          2015 Calendar

2016 Calendar          2017 Calendar

Trailhead
 
Contact
Alex Wierbinski

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Lake Tahoe to Mount Whitney

Your guide to backpacking the Sierra Crest, including the Tahoe to Yosemite, Pacific Crest, and John Muir Trails

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