Last Year
2017
THIS YEAR
News, Views, & Issues
2018
High Sierra
Backpacking Calendar
January February March April May June
July August September October November December
INDEX
November
2018
Last Week in October
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
TRAILHEAD
Last Year
November 2018
Looking back at the two Palisades Lakes below, with the Palisade Range
rising to their Right as we climb through shattered rock to Mather Pass
Turning around to take a last look at the Pallisade Lakes below, the Palisades Range surrounding them on the Right, and us hiking through the shattered rock leading South to Mather Pass.
Trail Guide Map Miles and Elevations: Not yet online
November 2018
Top of Page
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
Deploy Winter Gear
Our “base” layers are typically brought from Fall to Winter Standards during the month of November.
Our shell layers are thickened to Winter Standards as well.
Winter Shell, boots, socks, gloves and camp gear all come into play. I love my down snow-camp booties!
Retire the water filter and bear canister.
Probabilities of Overnight Freezing Next Five Days
Current Weather Map
THINKING ABOUT NEXT YEAR?
You Should be...
November is the time to begin thinking about reserving permits in Desolation Wilderness or Yosemite National Park for next June. Half of each ‘s Wilderness Permits at these heavily used areas are available six months before the start date of the backpacking trip
2018 Status
The beginning of November has brought us One Storm since May, beeing the mini-downpours that happened on the second day of October. We are currently experiencing another Drought Fall, Otherwise known as, the, "New Normal."
2017 Status
Despite last Winter's extreme snowpack cancelling the early & middle of the Summer of 2017 Backpacking Season (for all but the strongest & most skilled) before it melted out, the end of the Summer into Fall turned brutally tropical HOT & DRY, again bringing record temps, record fires, vast smoke coverage, and sure looking exactly like every one of the last 7 or 8 preceeding, "drought Falls."
Except for last Winter's massive snowpack, you'd think the drought never really ended.
We need another wet Winter to put another nail into the drought's coffin. Let's watch how this Winter Evolves.
What Brings This Winter of 2017-2018?
Predictions and Probabilities for the Upcoming Winter
We enter November 2017 coming off
a
HEAT WAVE
moderating into
Temperate Weather
&
First Substantial Storm approaching
Winter of 2018
WINTER GEAR REQUIRED
November 3
2016 Status
High temp storms out of the Southwest have been bringing
wet and snow conditions to the High Sierra. Wet and Cold conditions create a special kind of hazard that must be anticipated.
Early storms in Oct 2016 brought some drought relief to North Cal and snow along the whole Sierra Crest, it did little to alleviate SoCal Drought
We enter November 2016 with
a
COLD & WET GEAR ALERT
|
October 30
Warm-Temperate
LAST MONTH
NEXT WEEK
More
High Sierra
Backpacker
Information
Guide Trailhead
Guide Index
High Sierra Magazine
HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS
HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS
GEAR FORUMS
GEAR LIST |
October 31
Halloween
RED FLAG WARNING
Weather Notes
1> RED FLAG WARNING,
NW & Central-West Sierra
WINTER OMENS
2> We've had a Big Blob off NW USA, now up in Gulf Alaska, for a while now.
October 2018: The Blob is Back?
SST & El Nino Data
Now, a Big High has been setting up in a position with behavior reminiscent of the Big Blocking Ridge that characterized the depths of the drough in '15.
The Big Blocking Ridge an Existential Threat
North Pacific Maps
This combination of factors is indicative of a dry Winter in the Sierra, if they persist, even if a vast, powerful El Nino does form up.
The High, when in the proper, "resiliant ridge," formation, will deflect the tropical moisture transport mechanisms carrying supercharged tropical moisture from the El Nino to the North and South of the Sierra, and much of the NW of the US, if it sets up like it did during 2015-16...
Is it?
This set-up is looking famaliar...like a, "NEW NORMAL," and we'll see if it holds, and how it develops.
Last Massive El Nino Foreshadows Magnitude of Next
Earlier
Best 2018 Weather Assessment at the Footstep of Fall
Trail News, Oct 30, 2018
2017
CCC
Backcountry Trail Crew
Applications due
EARLY FEB 2018
2017
Temperate-Cooling
End of Daylight Savings
Halloween
THE 2017 QUESTION
When is the First Real Storm going to hit the Sierra Nevada?
We've had 1 (?) weak episode of weather across the crest so far this Fall, with rather, "pacific,"and temperate weather, so far.
When will two feet fall?
LAST MONTH
NEXT WEEK
|
1 November
Warm
WINTER WATCH
WINTER WARNING
Be ready for
Winter Temperatures
&
Conditions
Winter Gear Elements
Must be Included in your Kit for Safety
Clear Conditions can now bring Deep Cold!
Stormy Conditions will bring Snow!
2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
2nd
Temp-Snow Check
Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.
Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and
24 hour high-low temps.
Last Report:
October 27, 2018
A NEW WATER YEAR:
Total Precipitation
58 % of Average
A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs
N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations
"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.
Tahoe Basin
Watershed
Rubicon .0" -.6
7618 feet
(1.7 H2O) +.1
53 & 33 -/-
Echo Peak .0" -.3
7652 feet
(2.0 H2O) +.2
56 & 33 -/-
American-Yuba Watersheds
Carson Pass 0" -1.0
8388 feet
(.7" H2O) -.1
53 & 30 -/-
Carson-Walker
Watersheds
Ebbetts Pass 0"
8660 feet
(0.9" H2O) -.1
49 & 26 -/-
Leavitt Lake 0"
9602 feet, East Flank
(1.4" H20) =
47
& 30 -/-
Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
61 & 14 -/-
Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds
Deadman Creek
9250 feet, West Flank
000.0 Snow (BAD?)
(.16" H20) +.05
50
& 27 -/-
Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds
Tenaya Lake .34" -1.75"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
60
& 21 -/-
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
0.04" -1.19"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
58
& 20 -/-
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
-.--" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
48
& 25 -/-
Mammoth Mountain Ski
Mono Lake-Owens Basin
Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(3.85" H2O) Suspect -.02
temps bad
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
0.12" Snow -.12"
(1.44" H2O) =
51 & 39 x/x
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) suspect
65 & 26 -/-
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
1.4" Snow -1.6"
47 & 24 -/-
Kings River
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD- BAD
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY
-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)
Kern Watershed
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
7.92" -.16"
Snow suspect
50 & 28 -/-
(station
reporting again!)
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
*We've had virtually zero fronts of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then.
|
2
Warming Up
SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS
NEW
Temp & Snow Tables by Watershed and Highway Corridor
Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.
Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status
Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page
|
3
Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability
LAST MONTH
NEXT WEEK
TOP
LAST MONTH
NEXT WEEK
TOP
|
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
4
End of Daylight Savings
Spring Forward, Fall Back...
DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME
THE DST RULES
NIST
PDT
Information
Move clocks one hour back in time.
Why do we think we can manipulate Time & Nature, when the main thing we are changing, screwing-up, is ourselves?
Well, Nature too...
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
2017
|
5
Guy Fawkes Day
SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS
NEW
Temp & Snow Tables by Watershed and Highway Corridor
Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.
Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status
Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page
2017
Review Second Week of November |
6
Temperate-Warm
Fine Weather
Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability
The Weather Page
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK |
7
Temperate-Warm
Fine Weather
More
High Sierra
Backpacker
Information
Guide Trailhead
Guide Index
High Sierra Magazine
HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS
HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS
GEAR FORUMS
GEAR LIST |
8
Temperate-Warm
Fine Weather
COLD NIGHTS
RED FLAG WARNING
Heavy Winds
Early November
(feels like June-July)
Second Major Fire Season of 2018 begins...
FIRES START
Fire Reports
Weather Notes
Same as on October 31...
1> RED FLAG WARNING,
NW & Central-West Sierra
WINTER OMENS
2> We've had a Big Blob off NW USA, now up in Gulf Alaska, for a while now.
October 2018: The Blob is Back?
SST & El Nino Data
Now, a Big High has been setting up in a position with behavior reminiscent of the Big Blocking Ridge that characterized the depths of the drough in '15.
The Big Blocking Ridge an Existential Threat
North Pacific Maps
See the 31st, above
2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
3rd
Temp-Snow Check
Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.
Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and
24 hour high-low temps.
Last Report:
November 1, 2018
A NEW WATER YEAR:
Total Precipitation
58 % of Average
A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs
N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations
"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.
Tahoe Basin
Watershed
Rubicon .0" =.0
7618 feet
(1.5 H2O) -.2
53 & 28 =/-
Echo Peak .0" =.0
7652 feet
(1.7 H2O) -.3
54 & 27 -/-
American-Yuba Watersheds
Carson Pass 2" +1.0
8388 feet
(.6" H2O) -.1
54 & 22 +/-
Carson-Walker
Watersheds
Ebbetts Pass 0" =.0
8660 feet
(0.8" H2O) -.1
54 & 18 +/-
Leavitt Lake 0"
9602 feet, East Flank
(1.4" H20) =
52
& 16 +/-
Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
63 & 20 +/+
Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds
Deadman Creek
9250 feet, West Flank
000.0 Snow (BAD?)
(.00" H20) -.16
47
& 18 -/-
Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds
Tenaya Lake .??" .34"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
56
& 22 -/+
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
0.33" +.29"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
54
& 16 -/-
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
-.--" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
47
& 17 -/-
Mammoth Mountain Ski
Mono Lake-Owens Basin
Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(3.55" H2O) Suspect +.10
temps bad
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
0.26" Snow +.14"
(1.44" H2O) =
32 & 18 -/-
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) = suspect
60 & 22 -/-
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
.8" Snow -.8"
50 & 19 +/-
Kings River
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD- BAD
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY
-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)
Kern Watershed
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
0.6" -7.32"
Snow suspect
47 & 29 -/+
(station
reporting again!)
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
*We've had virtually zero fronts of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then. |
9
Temperate-Warm
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
WINDS
Calming Up North
Windy Down South
Camp Fire,
Butte Co,
Calfire
Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County FD
Fire Reports
Widespread
North Calif
Red Flag Warnings
Hazard Map
Last Year's Fires
Early October, 2017
WEATHER CONDITIONS Forecasts & Analysis
Run the Models
Also See
Regional Snow Analysis Sierra Nevada for this date
National Weather
Service
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS
High Sierra Weather
What Happened Now?
2017
Review Second Week of November
2016
November 2016
2015
November 2015 |
10
Temperate-Warm
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
WINDS
Moderate Up North
Moderate Down South
Winds? Weather?
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
Widespread
North
&
SoCal's
Coastal Fire Zone
Red Flag Warnings
Hazard Map
Fire Reports
Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now
Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages
Winds? Weather?
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
Precipitation
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS
Let's look at the
Big Picture
The Pacific Ocean
Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below
US Weather Map
All Maps
All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP |
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
11
VETERANS DAY
Temperate-Warm
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
Fire Report
Widespread
Hazard Alerts: Smoke and Fire
North Cal's
and
SoCal's
Fire Zones:
Both Operating Under
Red Flag Warnings
&
Smoke Hazards
Hazard Map
NOTE
There is A Serious Threat of More Fires Breaking Out.
SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS
2017
Review Third Week of November |
12
Temperate-Cooler
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
Fire Report
SoCal's
Coastal Fire Zone
Red Flag Warning
Hazard Map
SMOKE HAZARD WARNING OVER
SOUTH SAN J VALLEY
WIDESPREAD SMOKE
Rising & Falling
Important:
FORECASTING
WINDS
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
|
13
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
Fire Report
Camp Fire,
Butte Co,
Calfire
Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County, Calfire
Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County FD
SoCal's
Coastal Fire Zone
Red Flag Warning
Hazard Map
Air Now
All Smoke Reporting Stations Map
Rain Predicted for Next Tuesday, Nov 20th.
2017
More
High Sierra
Backpacker
Information
Guide Trailhead
Guide Index
High Sierra Magazine
HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS
HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS
GEAR FORUMS
GEAR LIST |
14
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
Fire Report
Massive N Cal Smoke
NO RED FLAG WARNINGS!
FORECASTING
WINDS
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
REALTIME
High Sierra Crestline
Reporting Stations
(Compare with the 8th)
Carson Pass
8388 feet
Ebbetts Pass
8660 feet
Leavitt Lake
9602 feet
Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
Deadman Creek
9250 feet
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
Gem Pass
10750 feet
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP |
15
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRES
COLD NIGHTS
Fire Report
Massive N Cal Smoke
NO RED FLAG WARNINGS
Camp Fire,
Butte Co,
Calfire
Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County, Calfire
Woolsey Fire,
Ventura County FD
2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
4th
Temp-Snow Check
Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings.
Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and
24 hour high-low temps.
Last Report:
November 8, 2018
A NEW WATER YEAR:
Total Precipitation
58 % of Average
A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs
N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations
"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.
Tahoe Basin
Watershed
Rubicon .0" =.0
7618 feet
(1.7 H2O) +.2
52 & 39 -/+
Echo Peak .0" =.0
7652 feet
(2.1 H2O) +.5
55 & 38 +/+
American-Yuba Watersheds
Carson Pass 2" +1.0
8388 feet
(.8" H2O) +.2
55 & 32 +/+
Carson-Walker
Watersheds
Ebbetts Pass 0" =.0
8660 feet
(0.9" H2O) +.1
55 & 36 +/+
Leavitt Lake 0"
9602 feet, East Flank
(1.4" H20) =
50
& 38 -/+
Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
65 & 14 +/-
Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds
Deadman Creek
9250 feet, West Flank
000.0 Snow (BAD?)
(.00" H20) =.00
54
& 23 +/+
Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds
Tenaya Lake .0"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
59
& 26 +/+
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
1.73" +1.4"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
59
& 19 +/+
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
-.--" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
54
& 26 +/+
Mammoth Mountain Ski
Mono Lake-Owens Basin
Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(3.78" H2O) Suspect +.10
temps bad
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
0.03" Snow -.23"
(1.44" H2O) =
53 & 31 +/+
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) = suspect
56 & 29 -/+
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
1.7" Snow +.9"
47 & 24 -/+
Kings River
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD- BAD
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY
-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)
Kern Watershed
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
0.21" -.39"
Snow suspect
44 & 31 -/+
(station
reporting again!)
Crabtree Meadow
10,700 feet
(.33 H2O)
-- & -- x/x
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
*We've had virtually zero fronts of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then.
|
16
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRE(S)
COLD NIGHTS
Massive N Cal Smoke
Fire Report
Woolsey Fire @ 69%
containment
Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now
Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages
Winds? Weather?
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
Precipitation
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
PRECIP FORECAST
Let's look at the
Big Picture
The Pacific Ocean
Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below
US Weather Map
All Maps
All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it |
17
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRE(S)
COLD NIGHTS
Massive N Cal Smoke
Fire Report
Red Flag Warnings
&
Smoke Hazards
RED FLAG WARNING
Camp Fire over Weekend
Forecast
SMOKE HAZARD
WARNING OVER
SAN J VALLEY
This Smoke Warning should cover, or at least be heeded by all sensible folks anywhere in the whole San J Valley, and most parts of Northern California.
Camp Fire @ 55%
containment
Woolsey Fire @ 82%
containment
Relief Coming
Precipitation is expected next Tuesday
(Precip Animation).
Between four and five inches of rain will fall on the area of the Camp Fire by next Saturday, if today's seven-day rain chart is correct.
WARNING
It is still November 17, and the Sun is low enough in the sky to bring instant cold and snowy weather, despite the fire, heat, and daytime warmth.
Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability
2017
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP |
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
18
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRE(S)
COLD NIGHTS
Massive N Cal Smoke
Fire Report: 17th
Red Flag Warnings
&
Smoke Hazards
RED FLAG WARNING
Camp Fire over Weekend
Forecast
SMOKE HAZARD
WARNING OVER
SAN J VALLEY
Trail Guide
Trailhead
High Sierra Forums
The Backpacker's Blog
SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS
2017
Review Third Week of November
|
19
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRE(S)
COLD NIGHTS
A Bit Less N Cal Smoke
Fire Report
FLASH FLOOD
Warnings
&
Smoke Hazards
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Camp Fire This Week
More
SMOKE HAZARD
WARNING OVER
SAN J VALLEY
More
Smoke capping North California is starting to weaken in winds from approaching front line.
Camp Fire @ 66%
containment
Last Woolsey Report
Woolsey Fire @ 94%
containment
Storms Coming
Anticipate Mountain Pass/Road Closures with Impending Storms
High Sierra
Road Information
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
2017 |
20
STORM APPROACHES
End of Smoke & Fire?
Mountain Highways Closing?
Temperate-Cool
Smoked
(All smoke resources)
DIRE FIRE
COLD NIGHTS
A Bit Less N Cal Smoke
Fire Report
FLASH FLOOD
Warnings
WINTER
Warnings
&
Smoke Hazards,
Too...
Storms Coming
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Camp Fire This Week
More
WINTER STORM WARNING
High Sierra
Run the Snow Model
Anticipate Mountain Pass/Road Closures with Impending Storms
High Sierra
Road Information
Be prepped for
Winter Conditions
SMOKE HAZARD
WARNING OVER
SAN J VALLEY
More
SMOKENDER
Smoke capping North California is to be blown away by incoming storm by 9 pm.
FIRE-ENDER?
The incoming storm appears to be carrying enough moisture to put the fires out before washing away fire-exposed, very-hotly burned mountainsides...
Fire Report
Today
Camp Fire @ 70%
containment
Last Woolsey Report
The 19th:
Woolsey Fire @ 96%
containment
|
21
STORM HERE
End of Smoke & Fire
Mountain Highways
Closing?
CLOSED TODAY
Wet & Cool
Smoke Dissapated
(All smoke resources)
FIRE
WINTER STORM
N Cal Smoke Going Away
Fire Report
FLASH FLOOD
Warnings
WINTER
Warnings
Storms Here
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
Camp Fire This Week
More
WINTER STORM
WARNING
High Sierra
Run the Snow Model
Anticipate Mountain Pass/Road Closures with Impending Storms
High Sierra
Road Information
Be prepped for
Winter Conditions
HIGH SIERRA
ROAD REPORTS
Tioga Pass Closed,
Caltrans
Sonora Pass Open,
Caltrans, as of 11:38 am PST, closed after...
Ebbetts Pass Closed, Caltrans
All Road Reports
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK |
22
THANKSGIVING
STEADY
LIGHT-MODERATE
PRECIP
TRENDS
FYI
Recent Sierra Highway Closure History
Tioga Road Closure History
High Sierra
Road Information
2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
5th
Temp-Snow Check
Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings, now that we've finally had a, "Winter," storm, the first of this season.
Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and
24 hour high-low temps.
Last Report:
November 15, 2018
A NEW WATER YEAR:
LAST YEAR
Total Precipitation
58 % of Average
A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs
N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations
"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.
Tahoe Basin
Watershed
Rubicon 4.0" +4.0
7618 feet
(2.1 H2O) +.4
42 & 30 -/-
Echo Peak 11" +11"
7652 feet
(2.6 H2O) +.5
39 & 29 -/-
American-Yuba Watersheds
Carson Pass 12" +10
8388 feet
(2.0" H2O) +1.8
35 & 27 -/-
Carson-Walker
Watersheds
Ebbetts Pass 16" +16
8660 feet
(3.1" H2O) +2.2
36 & 26 -/-
Leavitt Lake 14" +14
9602 feet, East Flank
(3.7" H20) +2.3
33
& 24 -/-
Marine Base (ERROR)
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
NR & NR +/-
Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds
Deadman Creek 4.56" +4.56
9250 feet, West Flank
(.98" H20) +.98
36
& 22 -/-
Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds
Tenaya Lake 12.66" +12.66"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.05") H20 =
39
& 28 -/+
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
13.04" +11.3"
(1.23") H20 = (broke?)
34
& 24 -/+
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
11.47" (error?)
8.71" H20 (ERROR?)
34
& 21 -/-
Mammoth Mountain Ski
Mono Lake-Owens Basin
Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(4.89" H2O) Suspect +1.10
temps bad
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
14.42" Snow +14.39"
(2.72" H2O) +1.28
53 & 31 +/+
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(20.4 H2O) = suspect
37 & 22 +/-
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
5.60" Snow +3.9"
33 & 19 -/-
Kings River
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD- BAD
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY
-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)
Kern Watershed
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
Snow suspect
(1.28" H2O +1.07")
38 & 16 -/-
(station
reporting again!)
Crabtree Meadow
10,700 feet
(.96 H2O) +.66
-- & -- x/x
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
1st Storm of Season
*Until Yesterday, we've had virtually zero storms of any power at all come across the Sierra since our little rain of the Second of October, with generally temperate and fine weather since then.
|
23
STEADY
LIGHT PRECIP
ALL RADAR
SATELLITES
NEW
Temp & Snow Tables
by Watershed and Highway Corridor
Also See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data.
Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status
Also See
All Snowpck Data on Weather Page
Review
November of 2017
against
November of 2016
Against this Crazy November of 2018....
|
24
CLEARING
last
Fire Camp Fire
Report
Current Surface Lows
&
7-Day Freezing Temps
Precipitation
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN-SNOW FORECASTS
All High Sierra
ZONE FORECASTS
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now
Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages
Winds? Weather?
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
Precipitation
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN-SNOW FORECASTS
Let's look at the
Big Picture
The Pacific Ocean
Set for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below
US Weather Map
All Maps
All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
LAST WEEK
NEXT WEEK
TOP |
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
25
VERY NICE DAY SPRINGLIKE
CAMP FIRE
CONTAINED
Last
Incident Update
last
Fire Report
More
High Sierra
Backpacker
Information
Guide Trailhead
Guide Index
High Sierra Magazine
HIGH SIERRA TRAILS FORUMS
HIGH SIERRA TOPICS FORUMS
GEAR FORUMS
GEAR LIST
LAST WEEK
NEXT MONTH
2017
Review Fourth Week of November |
26
CLOUDY-COOLER
Storms on the way
HIGH SIERRA
WINTER STORM
WATCH
HAZARDS
Harsh Transitions
SEASONAL NOTE
All High Sierra
ZONE
FORECASTS
2017
Informative
"Normal" Vs. Now
Forcasts & Reality
vs.
Averages
Winds? Weather?
NorCal Graphics
SoCal & SW US
Precipitation
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN FORECASTS
Let's look at the
Big Picture
The Pacific Ocean
Set this for 14 days
&
Display Loop Below
US Weather Map
All Maps
All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it |
27
CLOUDY-WARM
Weak Storm Arriving Today
HIGH SIERRA
WINTER STORM
WATCH to WARNING
Wednesday Night through
Thursday Night
Forecast Calendar
SNOW INFORMATION
The Snow Pack at a Glance
NOAA-NOHRSC
The High Sierra
11-27-18
All Snow Pack Resources
All Snow-Precipitation
All Reporting Stations
The
High Sierra
Weather Page
HAZARDS
All
Satellite
Views
All
Radar
Views
All
Snow-Precip Forecasts
All High Sierra
ZONE
FORECASTS
All High Sierra
POINT
FORECASTS
SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS
|
28
CLOUDY-WARM
Stronger Storm Arriving Today
Moderate-Heavy
Overnight Precipitation
HIGH SIERRA
WINTER STORM
WATCH to WARNING
Wednesday Night through
Thursday Night
Forecast Calendar
Precipitation
Forecasts
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:
RAIN-SNOW FORECASTS
REALTIME
High Sierra Crestline
Reporting Stations
(Compare with the 22nd)
Carson Pass
8388 feet
Ebbetts Pass
8660 feet
Leavitt Lake
9602 feet
Marine Base
6748 feet East Flank
Deadman Creek
9250 feet
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
Gem Pass
10750 feet
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
Crabtree Meadow
10,700 feet
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
LAST WEEK
NEXT MONTH
LAST WEEK
NEXT MONTH
TOP |
29
WINTER STORM
Moderate to Heavy Precip through Thursday Morning
Diminishing During Day
Winter Storm Warning
In effect overnight
Forecast Calendar
2018
HIGH SIERRA
--FALL--
6th
Temp-Snow Check
Last Report:
November 22, 2018
Let's check our reporting station snow & temp readings, now that we've finally had a, "Winter," storm, the first of this season.
Below: Watershed Snow Water Content Charts followed by individual reporting station's Snow Depth and
24 hour high-low temps.
A NEW WATER YEAR:
LAST YEAR
Total Precipitation
58 % of Average
A NEW WATER YEAR: Reservoirs
N Sierra Reporting Stations On a Map
Scroll over stations for snow & temps. Click for
full report.
South Sierra Stations
"+/- & =" below are changes since last reading.
Tahoe Basin
Watershed
Rubicon 15" +11.0
7618 feet
(5.5 H2O) +3.4
34 & 29 -/-
Echo Peak 29" +18"
7652 feet
(9.4 H2O) +6.8
36 & 29 -/=
American-Yuba Watersheds
Carson Pass 33" +21
8388 feet
(5.6" H2O) +3.6
34 & 27 -/=
Carson-Walker
Watersheds
Ebbetts Pass 38" +22
8660 feet
(8.5" H2O) +5.4
32 & 25 -/-
Leavitt Lake 45" +31
9602 feet, East Flank
(8.6" H20) +4.9
31
& 23 -/-
Marine Base (ERROR)
6748 feet East Flank
FULL REPORT
VIS-CHIL-WEA-MB-WIND
40 & 32 ?/?
Mokelumne-Stanislaus Watersheds
Deadman Creek 22.09" +17.53
9250 feet, West Flank
(3.77" H20) +2.79
30
& 20 -/-
Tuolumne-Merced
Watersheds
Tenaya Lake 31.54" +18.88"
8163 feet, West Flank
(2.37") H20 +.32
33
& 27 -/-
Tuolumne Meadows
8600 feet, West Flank
32.45" +19.41"
(2.28") H20 + (1.05)
30
& 23 -/-
Tioga Pass/Dana
9798 feet
36.77" +25.3
8.71" H20 (+.12)
27
& 23 -/+
Mammoth Mountain Ski
Mono Lake-Owens Basin
Gem Pass
10750 feet
SNO " Depth Suspect
(7.18) H2O) +2.29
temps bad
Mammoth Pass
9500 feet
32.52" Snow +18.1"
(7.88" H2O) +5.16
29 & 22 -/-
South Lake Cabin
9580 feet, East Flank
(Snow BAD")
(21.0 H2O) +.6 suspect
28 & 20 -/-
Big Pine Sawmill
10200 feet, East Flank
23.20" Snow +17.6"
27 & 17 -/-
Kings River
Bishop Pass
11972 feet
BAD- BAD
Charlotte Lake
10398 feet, West Flank
TEMPS ONLY
-- & -- BAD
(The coldest station)
Kern Watershed
Upr Tyndall Creek
11441 feet
34.47"
(1.28" H2O +1.07")
25 & 15 -/-
(station
reporting again!)
Crabtree Meadow
10,700 feet
(.75 H2O) -.21 (suspect)
-- & -- x/x
All High Sierra
Reporting Stations
2nd Storm of Season
*Until last night we've had one significant storm of any power at all come across the Sierra since the 21st, and before that, our little rain of the Second of October.
|
30
CLOUDY & CLEAR
Light Precip Late
High Sierra
WINTER ADVISORY
SATURDAY
7am to 10pm
Forecast Calendar
Seven Day
Freezing Temperature Probability
THE SNOWPACK
GRAPHICS
Date-Adjustable High Sierra Snowpack Status
GRAPHICS
NOAA-NOHRSC
The High Sierra
11-27-18
REPORTING
STATIONS
NEW
Temp & Snow Tables
by Watershed and Highway Corridor
SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SIERRA NEWS
LAST WEEK
NEXT MONTH
TOP
|
1 December
CLOUDY & CLEAR
Light Precip Early AM
HAZARDS
CalTrans
Trans-Sierra Highways
All
High Sierra Weather
And the factors creating it
See
All High Sierra Snowpack Data
LAST WEEK
NEXT MONTH
LAST WEEK
NEXT MONTH
TOP |
Sunday |
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
Saturday |
Top of Page
NOTES:
Highways 120 and 4 will close for the season with the first heavy snowfall.
November Road News
4, 108, & 120 closed on the 14th.
2018 Status
Weather Notes
November 2, 2018
The beginning of November has brought us One Storm since May, beeing the mini-downpours that happened on the second day of October. We are currently experiencing another Drought Fall, Otherwise known as, the, "New Normal."
Weather Notes
November 5, 2017
This first "cold" storm-front of the season that just passed through the Sierra over the last two days was a "dud," producing up to two inches of snow, rather than the forecast potential of two feet. There's a reason for that, and more was brought by this last front than snow alone. It's a harbinger of the season, our first looks at this Winter's pattern formation.
This first "cold" storm-front of the season that just passed through over the last two days was running from just NE of Hawaii, across the bottom, across the South end of a vast cold High coming Southeast out of the Bearing Straight & across Gulf Alaska. That High is now dropping South out of the Gulf Alaska, and it is currently bringing our next low down around its Eastern edge.
The next cold storm-front we are watching today is now bending Northwest from a Low sitting off the coast of Washington (to the East of the High), as this front is being pushed down and around the N Pac High, along with its attached Low, to the Southeast draging its seriously cold front along behind it.
"Behind" this next Low is another Low sitting above at the top of the N Pac High that's itself sliding South across Gulf Alaska.
That next Low, and the prospective Low behind it, are "loaded-up" to the North of the East Pac High, which is the configuration of the classic "West Coast Storm Gate." The "gate" depends on the location of the East Pacific High. At the proper location the East Pac High conducts Lows and their associated Fronts around its Northern perimeter, across the Aleutians around the top of its bulge, to "fire them up," then sweeps them down the Eastern edge of the High into the West Coast of the USA. That's the classic N Pac Storm Gate bringing Winter to the Sierra Nevada.
What we are seeing is the first formations of the classic Storm Gate as the chill of Fall deepens into Winter. Will this formation hold? Will the East Pac High slide North into the "void" created by a warmer Arctic, blocking the West Coast of the US, as was typical of our drought years? Was this drought position of the N Pac High "transitory," with the drought, or is this more Northern position of the East Pac High the new way Winter works in our "new," much warmer world's new weather pattern?
I'm thinking it's the latter, judging by the slow, decades-long Northern creep of the Winter-time positioning of the East Pac High. Nonetheless, the Forecasts show the beginnings of a classic "Storm Gate" formation over the next few days, bringing a couple of more Lows & their Associated Cold Fronts across the Sierra from the North. Classic.
The question is, "Will the Gate formation hold?" Will it predominate this Winter? That would be great news for the Sierra Forests, putting the dagger of final death into the heart of the drought.
This link below always shows the latest run of Animated, and the latest detailed N Pacific Weather Maps. If you view the animated map on Nov. 5 you will see the scenario I explained.
Animated Pacific Weather Maps
Pacific Weather Map
High Sierra Weather Page
All Maps
Tracking Sierra Nevada Weather
Fall to Winter, 2017
High Sierra Trail, Terrain, & Related News, Science & Events
November 2017
2016
We are emerging from the first wet October I can remember since the Fall of 2010.
Nov 3 2016
So far I would characterize this Fall as Wet & Warm characterized by persistent NEast Pacific low dragging tropical fronts to the NE. This shape of the atmosphere has almost excluded Southern California from the flows of precip out of the Southwest, while the South Sierra still received a good dusting of snow.
The pressure, wind and temp factors necessary to bring cold storms out of the Northwest across the Aleutians to the Sierra have not set up, leaving the door open for continued warm storm activity out of the Southwest.
I believe that these warm, wet storms in high altitude conditions are very dangerous, and a real pain in the ass for dedicated Winter Travelers. During snow travel water is best when it is deeply frozen and cannot melt upon body contact when either falling from the sky or through ground contact. These current conditions of warm on the ground snow and warm falling snow melting upon body contact both create the potential for very hazardous cold and wet conditions to quickly evolve.
Remember what always happens after we get drenched? It freezes! Traveling through warm snow does not require snow falling to get us wet. Everything we touch melts!
My best Winter trips have been the coldest. Deep Cold creates a unique stability.
Anticipate the worse, expect the best, and we will be prepped and ready for the rest.
2015
EL NINO HISTORY:
A series of front lines "tied" to Central Pacific low pressure zones have been "dragged" across the West Coast by the lows.
The North end of the front lines are tied to the Low, while the line of the front runs Southwest to be anchored in East-Central Pacific tropical activity. Vast amounts of tropical moisture are transported along the front line between the low to the Northeast and the High to the Southwest.
So far these front lines transporting tropical moisture have been squarely pointed at Seattle in the Northwest corner of the US. |
HIGH SIERRA
Winter Backpacker
WEATHER RESOURCES
ALL SNOW
INFORMATION
Snowfall
on the
Ground
Rain-Snow
Probabilities
Rain-Snow
Forecasts |
HAZARD ALERT
November 4, 2017
BACKPACKER ALERT
WINTER GEAR REQUIRED
Moderate/weak-strength storm bringing up to 2 feet of snow to the Sierra Crest over this upcoming weekend.
Winter Gear Required.
Let's
Gear-Up for Winter
On September 15 the temps and conditions shifted enough to require shifting our gear setup from Summer to Fall gear kits.
FALL GEAR CHANGE UPON US,
Sept 15, 2017.
Now we've hit the Winter Line, and we've got to deploy the necessary elements of our Winter Gear Kit. Not the whole thing, but some serious Winter gear needs to come out now.
Four-Season High Sierra Gear List
2014 Calendar 2015 Calendar
2016 Calendar
2017 Calendar
2016
(& 2017, Too)
HAZARD ALERT
Oct 29 to Present, 2016
Nov 10 to Present, 2017
High Temps bring cold rains on the verge of being snow flurries, while snow flurries melt upon hiker contact:
THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS.
Excellent Gear Required.
We must be able to stay warm in freezing rains.
And warm after the rains end and the evening chill descends.
Even if the sky is clear we must anticipate the type of hazards that both clear skies or unexpected storm activity could bring.
Today those risks would be both unexpected very cold conditions and unexpected storm activity in "warm" conditions capable of bringing freezing rain.
GEAR ALERT
Oct 16 to Present, 2016
Excellent insulation layers required.
A gear kit designed for these potentially very harsh wet AND cold conditions is mandatory.
Not quite a full Winter setup is yet demanded, but one designed to deal with potentially very wet conditions accentuated by plunging cold temps.
Tricky!
Date Vs. Conditions on the Ground
The calendar says Winter Conditions, but what are the conditions on the ground?
Late season clarity can quickly shift to blizzard conditions.
Hope for the best, pack gear for the worse.
High Sierra Winter Weather
2014 Calendar 2015 Calendar
2016 Calendar
2017 Calendar |
November
With or without snow on the Sierra, November brings very cold temps, and clear skies can turn dark and unleash heavy snow very quickly.
Summertime backpackers are tracking the trajectory of Winter conditions to guess-timate the date snows will clear from the high trails during Spring.
Wintertime backpackers are carefully tracking conditions to determine the best times to access the Winter Wonderland, if and when Winter comes across the 2017-18 divide.
2015 HISTORY
BACKPACKER ALERT
The threats are fire and tropical weather.
The enduring trend of shortening Winters and the subsequent significant diminishment of Rain and Snowpack during the last 25 years has evolved into a completely different weather pattern. The storms out of the Northwest, in fact the whole North Pacific Weather Pattern has been disrupted. I would say it has been shattered.
The various unhinged elements of our old pattern have not re-established a new pattern (they are still changing!), but two facts are crystal clear. First, our traditional pattern of Winter storms out of the Northwest has been shattered. It will likely re-occur every 3 to 7 years on a diminishing cycle. Winters dominated by storms out of the Northwest is done as the dominant feature driving Winter weather on the whole Northwest Coast of the US.
(I see two factors driving the Degradation of the North Pacific Winter Weather Pattern:
Factor A> The significant warming of the Arctic Circle during Winter has diminished the polar region's ability to draw West Pacific storms up to the perimeter of its once powerful spinning vortex of brutal cold, to "power them up," and toss them across the West Coast of the US.
Factor B> The warmth of the North Pacific ocean surface and atmosphere during Winter in N Latitudes has deflected the path of the typical North Pacific Winter Jet Stream across the Northeast Pacific, leaving the West Coast of the US dry.
The combined effects of the warming Arctic Circle and North Pacific Jet Stream changes are also responsible for the great "slides" South of Cold Arctic air masses over the Mid-West and East Coast over the last few Winters, causing those "polar vortexes."
Typical Winter storm patterns are not being drawn up to the Arctic Circle, they are not being fired up by the spinning vortex of the North Polar Region during Winter, nor are the resulting super-charged storms riding the Jet Stream down to California. That's the pattern that's over, the old pattern that drove fertility in California and the High Sierra.)
Second, the temperatures and humidity have risen to levels un-natural for the North Latitudes. We appear to be moving towards a tropical "Wet and Dry"-season type of pattern at 38 N. We'll see. We've loosened the forces of chaos, now we will see what happens, and where they end up.
The establishment of new basic metrological conditions in the North Pacific and Arctic Ocean assures that this new weather pattern has just now begun to re-order the type and distribution of plant and animal life rapidly under its changed footprint, forcing all to adjust to the new reality. Here in California that will be through fire for the trees, and lack of water for the animals and humans.
New plants, animals, and trees more suited to the hotter, drier climate will replace those burned, until they too are supplanted.
For backpackers this means that the rising threats into this year's September are massive fires and unexpected tropical downpours. |
Mountain Safety
?
Tahoe to Whitney
|
Top of Page
2018
High Sierra
Backpacking Calendar
January February March April May June
July August September October November December
2014 Calendar 2015 Calendar
2016 Calendar 2017 Calendar
top of page |